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[2015 - 2018年中国PM健康损害值的动态评估]

[Dynamic Assessment of PM Health Damage Value in China from 2015 to 2018].

作者信息

Li Hui-Juan, Zhou De-Qun, Wei Yong-Jie

机构信息

School of Finance, Xuzhou University of Technology, Xuzhou 221111, China.

College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2020 Dec 8;41(12):5225-5235. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202004112.

DOI:10.13227/j.hjkx.202004112
PMID:33374038
Abstract

With the development of industrialization and urbanization in China, there are many environmental problems especially air pollution, which has serious impacts on the sustainable development of economy, ecological environment and public health. Since 2013, a series of environmental protection laws and regulations, and industrial and energy policies have been successively implemented, including Action Plan for Air Pollution Control, and Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defense War etc. The air quality of the whole country has been improved. In order to evaluate the dynamic changes of environmental health benefits from air pollution control in China, this paper estimates the health effects and health economic losses caused by PM pollution, and makes a comparative analysis among different regions and cities based on the data of 297 cities at prefecture level and above in China from 2015 to 2018. The results show that, due to sharp decline of (PM), the population exposed to (PM)>35 μg·m decreased year by year, and the proportion of the total population decreased from 80.88% to 62.32%. The total number of all kinds of health endpoints decreased from 33.23 million to 15.91 million, health economic loss decreased from 1579.04 billion yuan to 838.42 billion yuan, the proportion of healthy economic loss in GDP dropped from 2.31% to 0.99%. Among the six regions, the index values of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas, and Chengyu areas have declined year by year. However, Fenwei Plain areas, Yangtze River Delta areas, Pearl River Delta areas, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River show a complex trend of increasing in some years and decreasing later. However, the situation of Fenwei Plain is still more serious than other areas, and the (PM) is next to Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas. (PM) of all 11 cities still exceed 35 μg·m in 2018. Compared with 2015, the number of early deaths decreased by 1500, but the total number of all kinds of health endpoints increased by 18900. The health economic loss is 80.711 billion yuan, an increase of 10.714 billion yuan than that in 2015. The proportion of health economic loss in GDP is 3.16%, which is 0.25% lower than that in 2015. The per capita health economic loss is 182.67 yuan higher than that in 2015. In terms of cities, from 2015 to 2018, (PM) in 228 cities decreased with varying degrees. Among which, Dezhou and Baoding dropped the most, only 10 cities saw (PM) rise. 14 cities saw an increase in the number of healthy endpoints, and 11 cities saw an increase in the proportion of healthy economic loss to GDP. Although the index values of Baoding, Xingtai, Handan, and other cities have declined year by year, they still rank top 10 every year. The index value of Xi'an, Xianyang, Linfen, and other cities in 2018 is more than that in 2015. The research shows that the environmental health benefits of air pollution control are significant in China, but it is still necessary to further strengthen regional joint prevention and control, as well as one city one policy.

摘要

随着中国工业化和城市化的发展,出现了许多环境问题,尤其是空气污染,这对经济可持续发展、生态环境和公众健康产生了严重影响。自2013年以来,一系列环境保护法律法规以及产业和能源政策相继实施,包括《大气污染防治行动计划》《打赢蓝天保卫战三年行动计划》等。全国空气质量得到改善。为评估中国空气污染控制带来的环境健康效益的动态变化,本文估算了PM污染造成的健康影响和健康经济损失,并基于2015—2018年中国297个地级及以上城市的数据,对不同地区和城市进行了比较分析。结果表明,由于(PM)的大幅下降,暴露于(PM)>35μg·m的人口逐年减少,占总人口的比例从80.88%降至62.32%。各类健康终点总数从3323万降至1591万,健康经济损失从15790.4亿元降至8384.2亿元,健康经济损失占GDP的比例从2.31%降至0.99%。在六个区域中,京津冀及周边地区、成渝地区的指标值逐年下降。然而,汾渭平原地区、长江三角洲地区、珠江三角洲地区以及长江中游地区呈现出某年上升、随后下降的复杂趋势。不过,汾渭平原地区的情况仍比其他地区更为严峻,其(PM)仅次于京津冀及周边地区。2018年,11个城市的(PM)仍超过35μg·m。与2015年相比,过早死亡人数减少了1500人,但各类健康终点总数增加了18900人。健康经济损失为807.11亿元,比2015年增加了107.14亿元。健康经济损失占GDP的比例为3.16%,比2015年低0.25%。人均健康经济损失比2015年高182.67元。从城市来看,2015—2018年,228个城市的(PM)有不同程度下降。其中,德州和保定下降幅度最大,仅有10个城市的(PM)上升。14个城市的健康终点数量增加,11个城市的健康经济损失占GDP的比例增加。尽管保定、邢台、邯郸等城市的指标值逐年下降,但它们每年仍位列前十。2018年,西安、咸阳、临汾等城市的指标值高于2015年。研究表明,中国空气污染控制带来的环境健康效益显著,但仍需进一步加强区域联防联控以及一城一策。

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引用本文的文献

1
Emission characteristics and health effects of PM from vehicles in typical areas.典型区域车辆颗粒物的排放特征及健康影响。
Front Public Health. 2024 Jun 19;12:1326659. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1326659. eCollection 2024.