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[中国城市与颗粒物相关的健康风险及相关经济损失评估]

[An Assessment of PM-Related Health Risks and Associated Economic Losses in Chinese Cities].

作者信息

Li Hui-Juan, Zhou De-Qun, Wei Yong-Jie

机构信息

College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China.

Economic School, Xuzhou University of Technology, Xuzhou 221111, China.

出版信息

Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2018 Aug 8;39(8):3467-3475. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.201711237.

Abstract

It is important to carry out research on health risks and associated economic losses caused by air pollution using a large sample city in order to control air pollution and improve public health literacy. Using environmental health risk and environmental value assessment methods, the health risks of PM pollution in 2015, as well as the corresponding economic losses, were estimated in this study using the environmental monitoring data of 62 key cities as samples. The results show that significant impacts due to PM pollution occurred in 2015, including about 125.1[95% confidence interval (CI):33.29-205.90] thousand premature deaths and 10.10 (95% CI:4.70-15.02) million cases of illness, hospital admissions, and outpatients, which accounted for 3.53% (95% CI:1.64%-5.26%) of the total urban population. The total economic loss associated with the health risks was approximately 570.6 (95% CI:193.08-874.21) billion yuan, which accounts for 1.53% (95% CI:0.52%-2.35%) of the total GDP in 2015. The per capita loss was 1970 (95% CI:667-3018) yuan for these cities. Among the four major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Northeast China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has the highest health risks, associated economic losses, the proportion of associated economic losses to GDP, and associated economic loss per capita because of its high concentration of PM and dense population than other three urban agglomerations. Among the three economic areas of Eastern, Central, and Western China, the health risks and associated economic losses were highest in the former. However, economic loss per capita did not differ greatly in the three economic areas. The difference in economic losses was very small between South and North China. However, the proportion of economic loss to GDP and per capita loss were much higher in the North than in the South. As to specific cities, the problems of health risks and economic losses were outstanding in Baoding, Zhengzhou, Jinan, and Beijing, which have higher PM concentrations.

摘要

为了控制空气污染并提高公众健康素养,以一个大城市为样本开展空气污染导致的健康风险及相关经济损失的研究很重要。本研究采用环境健康风险和环境价值评估方法,以62个重点城市的环境监测数据为样本,估算了2015年PM污染的健康风险以及相应的经济损失。结果显示,2015年PM污染造成了重大影响,包括约12.51万例(95%置信区间[CI]:3.329 - 20.590万例)过早死亡以及1010万例(95%CI:470 - 1502万例)患病、住院和门诊病例,占城市总人口的3.53%(95%CI:1.64% - 5.26%)。与健康风险相关的总经济损失约为5706亿元(95%CI:1930.8 - 8742.1亿元),占2015年国内生产总值的1.53%(95%CI:0.52% - 2.35%)。这些城市的人均损失为1970元(95%CI:667 - 3018元)。在京津冀、长三角、珠三角和东北四大城市群中,京津冀的健康风险、相关经济损失、相关经济损失占GDP的比例以及人均相关经济损失最高,因为其PM浓度高且人口密集,高于其他三个城市群。在中国东部、中部和西部三个经济区域中,东部的健康风险和相关经济损失最高。然而,三个经济区域的人均经济损失差异不大。中国南方和北方之间的经济损失差异很小。然而,北方经济损失占GDP的比例和人均损失远高于南方。至于具体城市,保定、郑州、济南和北京的健康风险和经济损失问题突出,这些城市的PM浓度较高。

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