Vingilis E, Blefgen H, Lei H, Sykora K, Mann R
Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, University of Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Accid Anal Prev. 1988 Feb;20(1):9-17. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(88)90010-3.
The deterrent impact of Ontario's 12-hour licence suspension law, a law intended to mete out swift punishment is evaluated. A process model of deterrence is included. Time series analyses of the monthly log odds of number of positive B.A.C. fatalities over the number of negative B.A.C. fatalities indicated a small, short-term effect. The intermediate measures of four surveys of media coverage, Toronto residents, Ontario residents, and police forces supported these results, and affirmed the potential validity of the process model of deterrence. The results suggest that laws to increase the celerity and certainty of punishment will have little deterrent impact without enforcement and publicity of the new laws.
对安大略省12小时驾照吊销法的威慑效果进行了评估，该法律旨在迅速实施惩罚。研究纳入了威慑的过程模型。对每月阳性血液酒精浓度（B.A.C.）致死人数与阴性B.A.C.致死人数的对数比值进行时间序列分析，结果表明存在微小的短期影响。对媒体报道、多伦多居民、安大略省居民和警察部队进行的四项调查的中间指标支持了这些结果，并肯定了威慑过程模型的潜在有效性。结果表明，如果不执行新法律并进行宣传，旨在提高惩罚速度和确定性的法律将几乎没有威慑作用。
