Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science & Arts Sharourah, Najran University, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Department of Information Technology, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Kassala, Sudan.
Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Nov 13;17(6):8123-8137. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2020412.
On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization announced the novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic due to the rapid growth in the number of cases worldwide. The ability of countries to contain and mitigate interventions is crucial in controlling the exponential spread of the novel virus. Several social distancing and control measurements have been applied in Saudi Arabia to mitigate COVID-19 epidemic such as quarantine, schools closure, suspending travels, reducing crowds, people movement restrictions, self-isolation and contacts tracing. This research aims to study the country interventions in Saudi Arabia and their impact on decreasing the spread of COVID-19. This paper examined different control measurements scenarios produced by a modified SEIR mathematical model with an emphasis on testing capacity expansion and number of critical cases. The modified SEIR mathematical model is solved numerically using Rung-Kutta analysis method for solving the modified SEIR system of ordinary differential equations. The simulation results revealed that the interventions are vital to flatten the virus spread curve. Early implementation of country interventions can delay the peak and decrease the population fatality rate.
2020 年 3 月 11 日，世界卫生组织宣布新型冠状病毒 COVID-19 疫情为大流行，因为全球病例数量迅速增加。各国遏制和减轻干预措施的能力对于控制新型病毒的指数级传播至关重要。沙特阿拉伯采取了几项社会距离和控制措施来减轻 COVID-19 疫情，如隔离、学校关闭、暂停旅行、减少人群、人员流动限制、自我隔离和接触者追踪。本研究旨在研究沙特阿拉伯的国家干预措施及其对降低 COVID-19 传播的影响。本文研究了通过改进的 SEIR 数学模型产生的不同控制措施方案，重点是测试能力扩大和关键病例数量。使用龙格-库塔分析方法求解改进的 SEIR 常微分方程组，对改进的 SEIR 数学模型进行数值求解。模拟结果表明，干预措施对于减缓病毒传播曲线至关重要。及早实施国家干预措施可以延迟高峰期并降低人口死亡率。
