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利用模拟建模和系统科学助力控制2019冠状病毒病:一项系统综述

Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.

作者信息

Zhang Weiwei, Liu Shiyong, Osgood Nathaniel, Zhu Hongli, Qian Ying, Jia Peng

机构信息

Research Institute of Economics and Management Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Chengdu China.

Institute of Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai Zhuhai China.

出版信息

Syst Res Behav Sci. 2022 Aug 19. doi: 10.1002/sres.2897.

Abstract

This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.

摘要

本研究系统回顾了三种模拟方法,即系统动力学模型(SDM)、基于主体的模型(ABM)和离散事件模拟(DES)及其混合模型在新冠肺炎研究中的应用,并确定了公共卫生领域的理论和应用创新。在372篇符合条件的论文中,72篇关注新冠肺炎传播动力学,204篇评估了药物和非药物干预措施,29篇关注疫情预测,67篇研究了新冠肺炎的影响。275篇论文使用了ABM,其次是54篇SDM论文、32篇DES论文和11篇混合模型论文。干预方案的评估和设计是涉及新冠肺炎传播、疫情预测、干预方案评估和设计以及社会影响评估这四个主要类别的论文中讨论最广泛的领域,占55%。影响评估和干预设计的复杂性需要能够同时捕捉所涉及社会经济系统微观和宏观方面的混合模拟模型。

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