Aronu Charles Okechukwu, Ekwueme Godspower Onyekachukwu, Sol-Akubude Vincent Ikemefuna, Okafor Patrick Nnaemeka
Department of Statistics, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Anambra State, Nigeria.
Department of Industrial Production Engineering, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria.
Sci Afr. 2021 Mar;11:e00689. doi: 10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00689. Epub 2020 Dec 30.
The novel coronavirus is a new disease threatening the population size and economic activities across the world. Due to the poverty rate in Africa, as well as poor access to quality health care, inadequate medical staff and poor technology, Africa has been predicted to be one of the most severely affected continents in the world by COVID-19. The objective of this study was to examine the survival rate of COVID-19 patients in Nigeria using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasting approach. The source of the data used for this study was the secondary data obtained from the daily publication/report of the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from 28th February 2020 to 30th June 2020. The mean daily survival rate of COVID-19 patients was found to be 27.5% with a median survival rate of 25.4% which is below 50%. Also, the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was identified to be appropriate for predicting the survival rate of COVID-19 patients in Nigeria within the observed period. Further findings showed that little variation exists between the predicted and actual survival rate of COVID19 for June 2020 which indicates that the obtained ARIMA model (0, 1, 1) was adequate for the estimation of the survival rate of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Based on the findings of the study, the need for the Nigerian government to explore effective treatment strategies both internationally and locally to improve the survival rate of patients with the disease was strongly recommended. Also, the need for the government to encourage local manufacturing of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) such as garment, which is expected to help health workers effectively manage affected persons without being infected at the front line was recommended.
新型冠状病毒是一种新出现的疾病，威胁着全球的人口规模和经济活动。由于非洲的贫困率，以及获得优质医疗保健的机会有限、医务人员不足和技术落后，预计非洲将成为受新冠疫情影响最严重的大陆之一。本研究的目的是使用自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）预测方法，研究尼日利亚新冠患者的生存率。本研究使用的数据来源是从尼日利亚疾病控制中心（NCDC）2020年2月28日至2020年6月30日的每日发布/报告中获取的二手数据。发现新冠患者的平均每日生存率为27.5%，中位生存率为25.4%，低于50%。此外，ARIMA（0, 1, 1）被确定适用于预测观察期内尼日利亚新冠患者的生存率。进一步的研究结果表明，2020年6月新冠患者预测生存率与实际生存率之间差异不大，这表明所获得的ARIMA模型（0, 1, 1）足以估计尼日利亚新冠患者的生存率。基于该研究结果，强烈建议尼日利亚政府在国际和国内探索有效的治疗策略，以提高该疾病患者的生存率。此外，建议政府鼓励本地生产个人防护装备（PPE），如防护服，这有望帮助医护人员在一线有效管理感染者而不被感染。
