Department of Psychology, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada.
Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging and Department of Experimental Psychology, University College London, London, UK.
Psychon Bull Rev. 2021 Jun;28(3):1021-1028. doi: 10.3758/s13423-020-01848-y. Epub 2021 Jan 5.
Risk engenders a phenomenologically distinct experience from certainty, often driving people to behave in ostensibly irrational ways, and with potential consequences for our subjective sense of confidence in having made the best choice. While previous work on decision confidence has largely focused on ambiguous perceptual decisions or value-based choices under certainty, it is unclear how subjective confidence reports are formed during risky value-based choice (i.e. those with uncertain outcomes). Accordingly, we sought to examine the effect of risky (versus certain) choice upon confidence ratings in a calibrated economic choice task and explore the well-documented interrelationships between confidence and subjective value (SV) as well as choice response time (RT) in the context of value-based choice. By jointly analyzing choices (risky versus certain), SV of the chosen option, confidence, and RT, we found a systematic effect of risk on subjective confidence: subjective confidence reports were significantly higher when selecting a certain prospect compared with a risky one. Interestingly, risk attenuated the strength of the relationships between confidence and both RTs and difference in subjective value (ΔSV), as well as the relationship between RT and ΔSV. Taken together, these results corroborate how choice, RT, confidence and SV relate in value-based choice under risk, informing both theories of confidence and risk preferences.
风险产生的现象在经验上有别于确定性，它常常驱使人们表现出表面上不合理的行为，并且可能对我们对做出最佳选择的主观信心产生影响。虽然之前关于决策信心的研究主要集中在不确定的感知决策或确定性下的基于价值的选择上，但在不确定结果的风险基于价值的选择（即那些具有不确定结果的选择）中，主观信心报告是如何形成的尚不清楚。因此，我们试图在一个校准的经济选择任务中检查风险（相对于确定）选择对信心评分的影响，并在基于价值的选择的背景下探索信心和主观价值（SV）以及选择反应时间（RT）之间的已有充分记录的相互关系。通过联合分析选择（风险与确定）、所选选项的 SV、信心和 RT，我们发现风险对主观信心有系统的影响：与选择风险前景相比，选择确定前景时，主观信心报告明显更高。有趣的是，风险减弱了信心与 RT 和主观价值差异（ΔSV）之间的关系的强度，以及 RT 和ΔSV 之间的关系。综上所述，这些结果证实了风险下基于价值的选择中选择、RT、信心和 SV 之间的关系，为信心和风险偏好理论提供了信息。
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