Coronavirus epidemic in Croatia: case fatality decline during summer?

AIM

To describe the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic pattern in Croatia during February-September 2020 and compare the case fatality ratio (CFR) between spring and summer.

METHODS

National data were used to calculate the weekly and monthly CFRs, stratified by three age groups: 0-64, 65-79, and 80+ years. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratios (SMR) to offset the differences in age composition.

RESULTS

The epidemic consisted of the initial wave, a trough in June, and two conjoined summer waves, yielding 17206 coronavirus disease 2019 cases and 290 deaths. While the number of confirmed cases nearly quadrupled during summer, case fatality estimates decreased; CFR in spring was 4.81 (95% confidence interval 3.91-5.71), compared with 1.24 (1.06-1.42) in summer. The SMR for summer was 0.45 (0.37-0.55), suggesting that the case fatality risk halved compared with spring. Cardiovascular comorbidity was an important risk factor for case fatality (SMR 2.63 [2.20-3.13] during spring and 1.28 [1.02-1.59] during summer). The risk of death in ventilated patients remained unchanged (SMR 0.98 [0.77-1.24]).

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemic dynamics suggests summer decline in case fatality, except in ventilated patients. While the effect of comorbidity also decreased, cardiovascular comorbidity remained an important risk factor for death even during summer. A plethora of possible confounders and an ever-changing landscape of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Croatia require constant monitoring and evaluation, with an aim to prevent the uncontrolled spread of the virus and a disruption of health care functioning.