London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Health Sociol Rev. 2020 Jul;29(2):177-194. doi: 10.1080/14461242.2020.1764376. Epub 2020 May 13.
Mathematical models are key actors in policy and public responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. The projections from COVID-19 models travel beyond science into policy decisions and social life. Treating models as 'boundary objects', and focusing on media and public communications, we 'follow the numbers' to trace the social life of key projections from prominent mathematical models of COVID-19. Public deliberations and controversies about models and their projections are illuminating. These help trace how projections are 'made multiple' in their enactments as 'public troubles'. We need an approach to evidence-making for policy which is emergent and adaptive, and which treats science as an entangled effect of public concern made in social practices. We offer a rapid sociological response on the social life of science in the emerging COVID-19 pandemic to speculate on how evidence-making might be done differently going forwards.
数学模型是应对 COVID-19 大流行的政策和公众反应的关键因素。COVID-19 模型的预测不仅涉及科学，还涉及政策决策和社会生活。我们将模型视为“边界对象”，并专注于媒体和公众传播，通过“追踪数字”来追踪 COVID-19 主要数学模型的关键预测的社会生活。对模型及其预测的公众审议和争议具有启发性。这些有助于追踪预测如何在作为“公共问题”的实施中被“多次制定”。我们需要一种针对政策的证据制定方法，这种方法具有涌现性和适应性，并将科学视为在社会实践中产生的公众关注的纠缠效应。我们对新兴的 COVID-19 大流行中的科学社会生活做出了快速的社会学回应，以推测未来如何以不同的方式进行证据制定。
