Conceptualising the value of simulation modelling for public engagement with policy: a critical literature review.

As we face complex and dynamically changing public health and environmental challenges, simulation modelling has come to occupy an increasingly central role in public engagements with policy. Shifts are occurring not only in terms of wider public understandings of modelling, but also in how the value of modelling is conceptualised within scientific modelling communities. We undertook a critical literature review to synthesise the underlying epistemic, theoretical and methodological assumptions about the role and value of simulation modelling within the literature across a range of fields (e.g., health, social science and environmental management) that engage with participatory modelling approaches. We identified four cross-cutting narrative conceptualisations of the value of modelling across different research traditions: (1) models simulate and help solve complex problems; (2) models as tools for community engagement; (3) models as tools for consensus building; (4) models as volatile technologies that generate social effects. Exploring how these ideas of 'value' overlap and what they offer one another has implications for how participatory simulation modelling approaches are designed, evaluated and communicated to diverse audiences. Deeper appreciation of the conditions under which simulation modelling can catalyse multiple social effects is recommended.