An Entropic Approach to Estimating the Instability Criterion of People in Floodwaters.

People are always susceptible to a loss of stability in urban floodwaters that leads to serious casualties. Thus, the safety criterion for the instability of people in floodwaters must be determined. In this study, the hydrodynamic criterion of the instability of people in floodwaters in terms of the incipient velocity and water depth is derived using the probability method based on Shannon entropy theory. The derived model can characterize variations in the incipient velocity of people in floodwaters with respect to the inundating water depth. Furthermore, a comparison with seven experimental datasets available in the literature shows the validity of the proposed entropy-based model considering data scattering. A sensitivity analysis of the derived model to some of the incorporated parameters was performed, and the qualitative results are in accordance with our understanding of the physical mechanism of the instability of people in floodwaters. Taking the physical parameters (height and mass) of Chinese adults and children as a representative example, this study also showed the vulnerability degree of Chinese adults and children subject to floodwaters. These findings could provide a reference for administrators and stakeholders for flood hazard mitigation and flood strategy management. This study shows that an entropy-based method could be a valuable addition to existing deterministic models for characterizing the instability criterion of people in an urban flooding event.