Key laboratory of Environmental Change and National Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Key laboratory of Environmental Change and National Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Dec 1;643:171-182. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.197. Epub 2018 Jun 21.
Impacts of floods on human society have been drawing increasing human concerns in recent years. In this study, flood observations from EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) and DFO (Dartmouth Flood Observatory) datasets were analyzed to investigate frequency and intensity of floods, and flood-induced mortality, flood-affected population as well during 1975-2016 across the globe. Results indicated that: (1) occurrence rate of floods, flood-induced mortality and flood-affected population were generally increasing globally. However, flood-induced mortality and flood-affected people per flood event were in slight decrease, indicating that flood-induced mortality and flood-affected people due to increased floods exceeded those by individual flood event; (2) annual variation of mortality per flood event is highly related to floods with higher intensity. Specifically, the flood frequency and flood-induced mortality are the largest in Asia, specifically in China, India, Indonesia and Philippine; while significantly increased flood-affected population and mean annual mortality was detected in China, USA and Australia; (3) tropical cyclones (TC) are closely related to flood-induced mortality in parts of the countries along the western coast of the oceans. The frequency of channel floods in these regions is the largest and large proportion of flood-induced deaths and the highest flood-induced mortality can be attributed to TC-induced flash floods; (4) Population density and GDP per unit area are in significantly positive correlation with the number of flood-related victims per unit area, number of deaths and economic losses with exception of low-income countries. However, the flood-affected population and flood-induced mortality increase with decrease of per capita GDP; while the per capita economic loss increases with the increase of per capita GDP, indicating that the higher the population density and GDP per unit for a region, the higher sensitivity of this area to flood hazards.
近年来，洪水对人类社会的影响越来越引起人们的关注。本研究利用 EM-DAT（灾害事件数据库）和 DFO（达特茅斯洪水观测站）数据集的洪水观测资料，分析了 1975-2016 年期间全球洪水的频率和强度、洪水导致的死亡率以及受洪水影响的人口。结果表明：（1）全球范围内洪水的发生频率、洪水导致的死亡率和受洪水影响的人口总体呈上升趋势。然而，洪水导致的死亡率和每次洪灾受影响的人数略有下降，表明由于洪水增加导致的洪水导致的死亡率和受洪水影响的人数超过了单个洪灾事件的影响；（2）每次洪灾的死亡率的年际变化与洪水强度高度相关。具体而言，亚洲的洪水频率和洪水导致的死亡率最大，特别是在中国、印度、印度尼西亚和菲律宾；而中国、美国和澳大利亚的受洪水影响的人口和平均年死亡率显著增加；（3）在海洋西岸的部分国家，热带气旋（TC）与洪水导致的死亡率密切相关。这些地区的河道洪水频率最大，洪水导致的死亡人数比例较高，洪水导致的死亡率最高，这归因于 TC 引发的突发洪水；（4）人口密度和单位面积 GDP 与单位面积洪水相关受害者人数、死亡人数和经济损失呈显著正相关，但低收入国家除外。然而，受洪水影响的人口和洪水导致的死亡率随着人均 GDP 的减少而增加，而人均经济损失随着人均 GDP 的增加而增加，这表明一个地区的人口密度和单位面积 GDP 越高，该地区对洪水灾害的敏感性越高。
