Department of Medicine, S.M.S. Medical College & Attached Hospitals, Jaipur, India.
Department of Physiology, S.M.S. Medical College & Attached Hospitals, Jaipur, India.
Front Public Health. 2020 Dec 8;8:585850. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.585850. eCollection 2020.
The present study is aimed at estimating patient flow dynamic parameters and requirement for hospital beds. Second, the effects of age and gender on parameters were evaluated. In this retrospective cohort study, 987 COVID-19 patients were enrolled from SMS Medical College, Jaipur (Rajasthan, India). The survival analysis was carried out from February 29 through May 19, 2020, for two hazards: Hazard 1 was hospital discharge, and Hazard 2 was hospital death. The starting point for survival analysis of the two hazards was considered to be hospital admission. The survival curves were estimated and additional effects of age and gender were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The Kaplan Meier estimates of lengths of hospital stay (median = 10 days, IQR = 5-15 days) and median survival rate (more than 60 days due to a large amount of censored data) were obtained. The Cox model for Hazard 1 showed no significant effect of age and gender on duration of hospital stay. Similarly, the Cox model 2 showed no significant difference of age and gender on survival rate. The case fatality rate of 8.1%, recovery rate of 78.8%, mortality rate of 0.10 per 100 person-days, and hospital admission rate of 0.35 per 100,000 person-days were estimated. The study estimates hospital bed requirements based on median length of hospital stay and hospital admission rate. Furthermore, the study concludes there are no effects of age and gender on average length of hospital stay and no effects of age and gender on survival time in above-60 age groups.
本研究旨在估计患者流量动态参数和医院床位需求。其次，评估了年龄和性别对参数的影响。
在这项回顾性队列研究中，从 SMS 医学院（印度拉贾斯坦邦斋浦尔）招募了 987 名 COVID-19 患者。从 2020 年 2 月 29 日至 5 月 19 日对两种危害进行了生存分析：危害 1 是医院出院，危害 2 是医院死亡。两种危害的生存分析的起点被认为是住院。使用 Cox 比例风险回归分析估计生存曲线，并评估年龄和性别对额外影响。获得了住院时间（中位数= 10 天，IQR = 5-15 天）和中位生存率（由于大量删失数据，超过 60 天）的 Kaplan-Meier 估计值。危害 1 的 Cox 模型显示年龄和性别对住院时间没有显著影响。同样，模型 2 显示年龄和性别对生存率没有显著差异。8.1%的病死率、78.8%的康复率、0.10/100 人日的死亡率和 0.35/10 万人日的住院率。该研究根据住院时间中位数和住院率估计医院床位需求。此外，该研究得出结论，年龄和性别对平均住院时间没有影响，对 60 岁以上年龄组的生存时间也没有影响。
