Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa at the University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, 9300, South Africa.
CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia.
Environ Manage. 2021 Apr;67(4):632-647. doi: 10.1007/s00267-020-01399-x. Epub 2021 Jan 11.
The complex relationship that exists between water resources and agricultural production has been increasing constantly globally. Several factors are interacting to influence the management of water resources making the system complex and dynamic. To increase the understanding of these complex and dynamic systems, relevant tools are needed to identify the causal relationships that exist between the drivers and their influences on the system. Participatory modelling based on the system dynamics approach provides a simplistic and visualisation tool that can improve the understanding of the functioning of a complex and dynamic system. A multi-stage participatory approach was used in this study involving relevant stakeholders in the development of an integrated conceptual system dynamic model using causal loop diagrams. This approach was used because it captures the thought process and mental model of relevant stakeholders in the development of the model, making it a valuable tool for policy and decision making at government and individual levels. The integrated model built in this study used causal loop diagrams to address problems of water management and agricultural sustainability in the Breede River Catchment. The model shows major causal-relationships and feedback loops that determine the functioning of the overall system. The model demonstrates the usefulness of the participatory approach in solving problems related to water management and agricultural development in the catchment.
全球范围内,水资源和农业生产之间存在的复杂关系一直在不断增强。有几个因素相互作用,影响着水资源的管理,使系统变得复杂且具有动态性。为了提高对这些复杂和动态系统的认识,需要相关工具来识别驱动因素及其对系统的影响之间存在的因果关系。基于系统动力学方法的参与式建模提供了一种简化和可视化的工具,可以帮助理解复杂和动态系统的运作。本研究采用多阶段参与式方法,让相关利益攸关方参与制定综合概念性系统动力学模型,使用因果关系图。之所以采用这种方法,是因为它可以捕捉相关利益攸关方在制定模型过程中的思维过程和心理模型,使其成为政府和个人层面制定政策和决策的宝贵工具。本研究中构建的综合模型使用因果关系图来解决布雷德河集水区的水资源管理和农业可持续性问题。该模型展示了决定整个系统运作的主要因果关系和反馈回路。该模型展示了参与式方法在解决集水区水资源管理和农业发展相关问题方面的有效性。