Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Faculty of Public Health, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
Infectious Diseases Institute, College of Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria.
BMC Public Health. 2021 Jan 12;21(1):129. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-10149-x.
COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak.
Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05).
The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal.
Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.
COVID-19 是国际关注的新兴公共卫生紧急事件。其在全球的传播轨迹令人担忧，尤其是在人口众多的国家，如尼日利亚。本研究旨在评估和比较 COVID-19 在尼日利亚和其他七个国家爆发的前 120 天的传播模式。
从世界银行的网站上提取数据。进行了描述性分析，并对尼日利亚和其他七个国家从第 1 天到第 120 天的 COVID-19 传播进行建模。使用线性、二次、三次和指数回归方法（α=0.05）进行模型拟合。
尼日利亚 COVID-19 的传播模式与埃及、加纳和喀麦隆相似。尼日利亚的每日死亡分布与所考虑的七个国家中的六个相似。尼日利亚的每日 COVID-19 确诊病例呈上升趋势。在封锁期间，尼日利亚的增长率为 5.85（R=0.728，p<0.001）；然而，在封锁放松后，增长率为 8.42（R=0.625，p<0.001）。三次多项式模型（CPM）为预测所有调查国家的 COVID-19 累计病例提供了最佳拟合，并且明显偏离了指数增长模型。使用 CPM，在所有条件相同的情况下，预测尼日利亚在 3 个月（2020 年 9 月 30 日）的病例数为 155467（95%CI：151111-159824，p<0.001）。
必须改善 COVID-19 控制措施并严格遵守 COVID-19 推荐的协议。需要制定应急计划，为达到预测目标时的活跃病例提供护理。
