[The predictive value of the Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales (DROS) for predicting recidivism in (forensic) patients with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning].

The Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales (DROS) was developed to assess treatment progress of patients with mild intellectual disability (MID) or borderline intellectual functioning (BIF) and severe behavioral and/or psychiatric problems. Because of the focus on dynamic risk factors, practitioners also see this instrument as a tool for risk assessment.
AIM: To investigate the predictive value of the DROS on different classifications and severities of recidivism.
METHOD: DROS data from the routine outcome monitoring (ROM) of 250 forensic patients with MID-BIF who were discharged between 2007 and end of 2014 were linked to recidivism data from the Judicial Information Service.
RESULTS: The DROS total score predicted general, violence and sexual recidivism better than chance (AUCs > 0.58), although the effect was small. A DROS-recidivism subscale predicted general, violence and other recidivism with a medium to large effect (AUCs > 0.67). The predictive values of the DROS total score and DROS-recidivism subscale were comparable to those of the Historic, Clinical, Future (in Dutch: HKT)-30.
CONCLUSION: The DROS total score and DROS-recidivism subscale predict different classifications of recidivism better than chance. However, for risk assessment the DROS appears to have no added value to the HKT-30.