Villaamil Francisco Javier, Yus Eduardo, Benavides Bibiana, Allepuz Alberto, Moya Sebatián Jesús, Casal Jordi, Ortega Carmelo, Diéguez Francisco Javier
ADSG Costa da Morte, 15124 A Coruña, Spain.
Institute of Food Analysis and Research, Santiago de Compostela University, 27002 Lugo, Spain.
Animals (Basel). 2021 Jan 12;11(1):166. doi: 10.3390/ani11010166.
This study aimed at quantifying expert opinions on the risk factors involved in subsp. (MAP) infection in dairy cattle herds. For this purpose, potential risk factors associated with the introduction of MAP into dairies were chosen based on a literature review and discussions with researchers and veterinarians. For each factor, a decision tree was developed, and key questions were included in each. Answers to these key questions led to different events within each decision tree. An expert opinion workshop was organized (following the recommendations of the OIE), and ordinal values ranging from 0 to 9 (i.e., a null to very high likelihood of infection) were assigned to each event. The potential risk factors were also incorporated into a structured questionnaire that was responded to by 93 farms where the sanitary status against MAP was known. Thereby, based on the values given by the experts and the information collected in the questionnaires, each farm was assigned a score based on their MAP entry risk. From these scores (contrast variable) and using a ROC curve, the cut-off that best discriminated MAP-positive and -negative farms was estimated. The most important risk factors for the introduction of MAP, according to expert opinions, involved purchase and grazing practices related to animals under six months of age. The scores obtained for each farm, also based on the expert opinions, allowed MAP positive/MAP negative farms to be discriminated with 68.8% sensitivity and 68.7% specificity. These data should be useful for focusing future training initiatives and improving risk-reduction strategies in the dairy industry.
本研究旨在量化专家对奶牛群中亚种副结核分枝杆菌（MAP）感染相关风险因素的看法。为此，基于文献综述以及与研究人员和兽医的讨论，选取了与MAP引入奶牛场相关的潜在风险因素。针对每个因素，绘制了决策树，并在每个决策树中纳入了关键问题。对这些关键问题的回答导致每个决策树内出现不同事件。组织了一次专家意见研讨会（遵循世界动物卫生组织的建议），并为每个事件赋予了从0到9的序数（即感染可能性从无到非常高）。潜在风险因素还被纳入一份结构化问卷，93个已知MAP卫生状况的农场对该问卷进行了回应。由此，根据专家给出的值和问卷收集的信息，为每个农场根据其MAP引入风险分配了一个分数。利用这些分数（对比变量）并通过ROC曲线，估计出能最佳区分MAP阳性和阴性农场的临界值。根据专家意见，引入MAP的最重要风险因素涉及与6月龄以下动物相关的购买和放牧行为。同样基于专家意见，每个农场获得的分数能够以68.8%的灵敏度和68.7%的特异度区分MAP阳性/阴性农场。这些数据应有助于聚焦未来的培训举措并改进乳制品行业的风险降低策略。
