Mostaert Mireille, Vansteenkiste Pieter, Pion Johan, Deconinck Frederik J A, Lenoir Matthieu
Department of Movement and Sport Sciences, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium.
Sport and Exercise Studies, HAN University of Applied Sciences, Nijmegen, Netherlands.
Eur J Sport Sci. 2022 Apr;22(4):481-490. doi: 10.1080/17461391.2021.1877359. Epub 2021 Feb 10.
In sports, outperforming your peers at young age does not guarantee a professional sports career as an adult. To gain more insight in how performance in youth cycling competitions can be an indicator for future success, the current study (a) examined differences in success rate between future achievers and future non-achievers, (b) investigated whether the relative age effect affects these career pathways and (c) explored to what extent youth competitive performance can predict success at adult age. The sample consisted of 307 male road cyclists who achieved at least one top 10 result during national and provincial youth competitions (U15, U17, U19). Thirty-two were classified as future achievers because they reached senior elite level; the remaining 275 were classed as future non-achievers. Non-parametric analyses of longitudinal data, Kruskal-Wallis and logistic regressions were applied. These analyses revealed that the future achievers started to outperform the future non-achievers from U17 onwards. While the relatively older cyclists have an advantage over other cyclists in U15, this effect was smaller in U17 and was absent in U19. Finally, the competitive success rate of U15 cyclists could not predict success at adult age. However, for U17 and U19 cyclists each additional top 10 result was associated with 3-5%, and 6% higher chance to reach elite level at adult age, respectively. Overall, these results demonstrate that estimating potential based on competition results is unpredictable in the U15 category, however, may provide a better indication of future success from U17 onwards. The competitive success rate of U15 cyclists could not predict success at adult ageFrom the U17 category onwards, future achievers had higher success rates, and success rate has some predictive value for performance at senior elite level.Competitive performance is influenced by relative age effect in the U15 category, however, this effect disappeared as the athlete progressed into older age categories.Future non-achievers experience a significant decrease in success rate when transitioning to a new competition category.
在体育领域，年轻时在同龄人中表现出色并不能保证成年后能拥有职业体育生涯。为了更深入了解青少年自行车比赛中的表现如何能成为未来成功的指标，当前的研究（a）考察了未来成功者和未来非成功者之间成功率的差异，（b）调查了相对年龄效应是否会影响这些职业发展路径，以及（c）探讨了青少年竞技表现能在多大程度上预测成年后的成功。样本包括307名男性公路自行车运动员，他们在国家和省级青少年比赛（U15、U17、U19）中至少取得过一次前十名的成绩。32人被归类为未来成功者，因为他们达到了高级精英水平；其余275人被归类为未来非成功者。应用了纵向数据的非参数分析、克鲁斯卡尔 - 沃利斯检验和逻辑回归分析。这些分析表明，未来成功者从U17年龄段开始超过未来非成功者。虽然相对年龄较大的自行车运动员在U15年龄段比其他自行车运动员有优势，但这种效应在U17年龄段较小，在U19年龄段则不存在。最后，U15自行车运动员的竞争成功率无法预测成年后的成功。然而，对于U17和U19自行车运动员来说，每多一次进入前十名的成绩分别与成年后达到精英水平的机会高出3 - 5%和6%相关。总体而言，这些结果表明，基于比赛成绩来评估潜力在U15类别中是不可预测的，不过，从U17年龄段开始可能会更好地预示未来的成功。U15自行车运动员的竞争成功率无法预测成年后的成功从U17类别开始，未来成功者的成功率更高，并且成功率对高级精英水平的表现有一定的预测价值。在U15类别中，竞技表现受相对年龄效应的影响，然而，随着运动员进入年龄更大的类别，这种效应消失了。未来非成功者在过渡到新比赛类别时成功率会显著下降。
