Escobar-Alegria Jessica L, Frongillo Edward A, Blake Christine E
Alive & Thrive at FHI Solutions, Washington, DC, USA.
Department of Health Promotion, Education, and Behavior, The Norman J Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, USA.
Curr Dev Nutr. 2020 Oct 24;4(11):nzaa161. doi: 10.1093/cdn/nzaa161. eCollection 2020 Nov.
Presidents with no possibility of re-election overvalue far-future rewards and succumb to terminal logic behavior (TLB), responding to end-of-tenure legacy concerns despite political context. Government authorities perceiving the outgoing government is losing power at the end of term behave under the logic of strategic defection (SD), dissociating from the outgoing government once it is perceived powerless. In countries where re-election is impossible and government turnover and inconstant political parties are concerns, governmental officials at all levels may show TLB and SD during transitions that affect policy sustainability.
This study aimed to understand the context during presidential transitions that makes TLB and SD relevant, whether TLB and SD affect sustainability of food and nutrition security policy (FNSP), and the tactics for navigating transitions that favor sustainability.
A case-study design was used with semi-structured qualitative interviews and document review of news articles in Guatemala. Purposeful criteria and snowball sampling were used to recruit 52 policy actors implementing an FNSP across 2 transitions; 252 news articles from the referenced period covering topics on policy programmatic areas were purposefully sampled. Interviews were analyzed using coding and thematic analyses. News articles were analyzed using a priori thematic coding for verifying themes in interviews and data triangulation.
Governmental officials were replaced by others during transitions; political parties were perceived as inconstant. TLB and SD occurred at all levels and had consequences for sustainability of FNSP: implementation slow-down, dysfunctional collaboration, inefficient use of resources, benefits not reaching targeted groups, and loss of momentum. These occurred through individual, institutional, and political mechanisms. Civil society, international organizations, and government adopted tactics for maximizing sustainability.
Understanding governmental officials' experiences and the extent to which TLB and SD occur and affect sustainability could be advantageous to develop compensatory actions for reaching long-term FNSP goals.
没有再次当选可能性的总统会高估遥远未来的回报，并屈从于终期逻辑行为（TLB），不顾政治背景而回应任期结束时的遗留问题。政府当局认为即将离任的政府在任期结束时正在失去权力，会按照战略背叛（SD）的逻辑行事，一旦察觉到即将离任的政府无力，就会与其脱离关系。在那些总统无法再次当选、政府更替频繁且政党不稳定的国家，各级政府官员在过渡期间可能会表现出终期逻辑行为和战略背叛行为，这会影响政策的可持续性。
本研究旨在了解总统过渡期间使终期逻辑行为和战略背叛行为具有相关性的背景情况，终期逻辑行为和战略背叛行为是否会影响粮食和营养安全政策（FNSP）的可持续性，以及有利于可持续性的过渡应对策略。
采用案例研究设计，对危地马拉的新闻文章进行半结构化定性访谈和文献回顾。使用目的抽样标准和滚雪球抽样法，招募了52名在两次过渡期间实施粮食和营养安全政策的政策行为者；有目的地抽取了参考期间内252篇涵盖政策规划领域主题的新闻文章。采用编码和主题分析方法对访谈进行分析。对新闻文章采用先验主题编码，以验证访谈中的主题并进行数据三角测量。
过渡期间政府官员被其他人取代；政党被认为不稳定。终期逻辑行为和战略背叛行为在各级都有发生，并对粮食和营养安全政策的可持续性产生影响：实施放缓、合作失调、资源利用效率低下、福利未惠及目标群体以及动力丧失。这些情况通过个人、机构和政治机制发生。民间社会、国际组织和政府采取了使可持续性最大化的策略。
了解政府官员的经历以及终期逻辑行为和战略背叛行为发生的程度及其对可持续性的影响，可能有利于制定实现长期粮食和营养安全政策目标的补偿行动。
