University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway.
Norwegian Research Centre, Stavanger, Norway.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2021 May;17(3):626-638. doi: 10.1002/ieam.4392. Epub 2021 Mar 9.
Potential environmental consequences of oil leakages (i.e., continuous uncontrolled releases at low flow rate over a long period of time) need to be taken into consideration in the ongoing development of plug and abandonment (P&A) activities on the Norwegian continental shelf. Regulations of P&A wells employ a "zero leakage" target; however, environmental risk monitoring strategies for permanent abandonment are not yet in place. Predicting and estimating the consequences of adverse environmental impacts through a modeling approach can play a key role in evaluating and monitoring environmental risk. In this paper, we present a modeling study of the fate and effects of an oil leakage from abandoned wells using a theoretical scenario on the Norwegian continental shelf. Environmental impact factors (EIFs) derived from the Dose related Risk and Effect Assessment Model (DREAM), previously designed to characterize the effects of produced water discharges, were used to assess impacts of leakages from abandoned wells. Exposure assessments for the EIFs were modified to include specific hydrocarbon contributions derived from different sized oil droplets from the leakages. Because DREAM is not generally used for chronic low-rate oil releases, an update of the database with chronic predicted no-effect concentrations, as input data for effects modeling, was conducted. In general, EIFs became stable after simulations of 30 d. The area from the release site and up to a few hundred meters southward had the most locations of high impact. Chronic exposure and effects on organisms potentially occurred as a steady-state effect over a long period. Risks, at which more than 95% of species will be negatively affected, appeared surrounding the release site, indicating a need for mitigation measures. These results show that the EIF tool can be used for risk management and P&A regulation by identifying potentially harmful leakages. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:626-638. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).
在挪威大陆架上进行完井和弃置（P&A）活动的持续开发过程中，需要考虑到漏油（即长时间以低流速持续不受控制的泄漏）的潜在环境后果。P&A 井的法规采用“零泄漏”目标；然而，永久性弃置的环境风险监测策略尚未到位。通过建模方法预测和估计不利环境影响的后果可以在评估和监测环境风险方面发挥关键作用。在本文中，我们使用挪威大陆架上的一个理论场景，对废弃井中漏油的命运和影响进行了建模研究。先前设计用于描述生产水排放影响的剂量相关风险和效应评估模型（DREAM）中的环境影响因素（EIFs）用于评估废弃井中泄漏的影响。修改了针对 EIFs 的暴露评估，以纳入源自泄漏的不同大小油滴的特定碳氢化合物贡献。由于 DREAM 通常不用于慢性低速率油泄漏，因此对慢性预测无影响浓度数据库进行了更新，作为效应建模的输入数据。一般来说，EIF 在模拟 30 天后变得稳定。从释放地点到南方几百米的区域有最多的高影响地点。在很长一段时间内，由于稳态效应，生物体可能会受到慢性暴露和影响。在释放地点周围，出现了超过 95%的物种将受到负面影响的风险，表明需要采取缓解措施。这些结果表明，EIF 工具可用于风险管理和 P&A 监管，以识别潜在的有害泄漏。《综合环境评估与管理》2021 年；17：626-638。©2021 作者。综合环境评估与管理由 Wiley 期刊 LLC 代表环境毒理与化学学会（SETAC）出版。
