Department of Criminology, Law and Society, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, MS 6D12, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA.
Institute of Criminology, Faculty of Law, Jerusalem, Israel.
Prev Sci. 2021 May;22(4):509-522. doi: 10.1007/s11121-020-01194-4. Epub 2021 Jan 16.
There is growing evidence that crime is strongly concentrated in micro-geographic hot spots, a fact that has led to the wide-scale use of hot spots policing programs. Such programs are ordinarily focused on deterrence due to police presence, or other law enforcement interventions at hot spots. However, preliminary basic research studies suggest that informal social controls may also be an important mechanism for crime reduction on high crime streets. Such research has been hindered by a lack of data on social and attitudinal characteristics of residents, and the fact that census information is not available at the micro-geographic level. Our study, conducted in Baltimore, MD, on a sample of 449 residential street segments, overcame these limitations by collecting an average of eight surveys (N = 3738), as well as physical observations, on segments studied. This unique primary data collection allowed us to develop the first direct indicators of collective efficacy at the micro-geographic level, as well as a wide array of indicators of other possible risk and protective factors for crime. Using multilevel negative binomial regression models, we also take into account community-level influences, and oversample crime hot spots to allow for robust comparisons across streets. Our study confirms the importance of opportunity features of streets such as population size and business activity in understanding crime, but also shows that informal social controls, as reflected by collective efficacy, are key for understanding crime on high crime streets. We argue that it is time for police, other city agencies, and NGOs to begin to work together to consider how informal social controls can be used to reduce crime at residential crime hot spots.
越来越多的证据表明,犯罪高度集中在微观地理热点地区,这一事实导致了广泛使用热点警务计划。这些计划通常侧重于通过警察存在或在热点地区进行其他执法干预来威慑犯罪。然而,初步的基础研究表明,非正式的社会控制也可能是减少高犯罪街道犯罪的一个重要机制。这种研究受到缺乏居民社会和态度特征数据以及人口普查信息无法在微观地理层面获得的限制。我们在马里兰州巴尔的摩进行的一项研究,对 449 个住宅街道段进行了抽样调查,克服了这些限制,在研究的街道段上平均收集了 8 份调查(N=3738)以及实地观察。这种独特的原始数据收集使我们能够在微观地理层面上首次开发出集体效能的直接指标,以及一系列其他可能的犯罪风险和保护因素的指标。我们使用多层次负二项回归模型,还考虑了社区层面的影响,并对犯罪热点进行了超额抽样,以便在街道之间进行稳健的比较。我们的研究证实了街道的机会特征,如人口规模和商业活动在理解犯罪方面的重要性,但也表明,非正式的社会控制,如集体效能所反映的,是理解高犯罪街道犯罪的关键。我们认为,现在是警察、其他城市机构和非政府组织开始共同努力的时候了,他们需要考虑如何利用非正式的社会控制来减少住宅犯罪热点地区的犯罪。