Babbott D, Baldwin D C, Jolly P, Williams D J
Department of Medicine, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington.
JAMA. 1988 Apr 1;259(13):1970-5.
Medical graduates in 1983 were in preclinical training when the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee forecast a surplus of 70,000 physicians by 1990. Among the problems identified was the nuclear role of medical schools in affecting specialty choices. To understand this role further, the current study determined the stability and evolution of specialty preferences between the time of the Medical College Admission Test and the senior year of medical school. The study included 10,321 US medical school graduates in 1983. Eighty percent changed their specialty preference during this interval, demonstrating the substantial effects that medical schools have on specialty selection. The stability of early preferences ranged from 41% to 1%. Interest in primary care specialties declined among both men and women; interest in specialty care and supporting services increased during this five-year longitudinal study. These findings parallel shifts away from primary care among US medical school graduates in 1978 and 1983.
1983年的医学毕业生在进行临床前培训时，研究生医学教育全国咨询委员会预测到1990年医生将过剩7万名。所发现的问题之一是医学院校在影响专业选择方面的核心作用。为了进一步了解这一作用，当前的研究确定了医学院入学考试时到医学院高年级期间专业偏好的稳定性和演变情况。该研究纳入了1983年的10321名美国医学院毕业生。在此期间，80%的人改变了他们的专业偏好，这表明医学院校对专业选择有重大影响。早期偏好的稳定性从41%到1%不等。在这项为期五年的纵向研究中，男性和女性对初级保健专业的兴趣都有所下降；对专科护理和支持服务的兴趣则有所增加。这些发现与1978年和1983年美国医学院毕业生中远离初级保健的转变情况相似。
