Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research, Oslo Metropolitan University, Oslo, Norway.
Stockholm University Demography Unit, Stockholm, Sweden.
PLoS One. 2021 Jan 20;16(1):e0244670. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244670. eCollection 2021.
In an increasingly interconnected world, the demographic effects of wars are not confined only to war zones and neighbouring areas; wars and conflicts may also change populations far away. Without the war in Syria under President Assad and the associated mass exodus of Syrian refugees, the population trends in distant countries like Sweden and Norway over the last few years would have been different. We create hypothetical scenarios of the population developments in Sweden and Norway without a war in Syria from 2011 onwards, where excess immigration due to the war and associated excess births are removed. The results indicate that population growth in 2016 would have been roughly 36% lower in Sweden and 26% lower in Norway without the Syrian war. The number of births in 2017 would have been about 3% lower in Sweden and 1% lower in Norway. One in ten municipalities would have had a population decline in 2016 instead of a population increase, and the largest immigrant group in Sweden by January 2019 would still be of Finnish origin.
在一个日益相互关联的世界中，战争的人口影响不仅局限于战区和邻近地区；战争和冲突也可能改变遥远地区的人口。如果没有阿萨德总统领导下的叙利亚战争和随之而来的叙利亚难民大规模外逃，过去几年瑞典和挪威等遥远国家的人口趋势将会有所不同。我们假设了从 2011 年开始没有叙利亚战争的情况下瑞典和挪威的人口发展情况，其中因战争导致的过度移民和相关的超额出生被剔除。结果表明，如果没有叙利亚战争，瑞典 2016 年的人口增长率将比实际增长率低约 36%，挪威的人口增长率将低 26%。瑞典 2017 年的出生人数将比实际人数减少约 3%，挪威将减少 1%。2016 年，十分之一的市镇将出现人口减少，而不是人口增加，到 2019 年 1 月，瑞典最大的移民群体仍将是芬兰人。
