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全球预期寿命比较评估:以澳大利亚为例探讨移民的影响。

Global comparative assessments of life expectancy: the impact of migration with reference to Australia.

作者信息

Page Andrew, Begg Stephen, Taylor Richard, Lopez Alan D

机构信息

School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.

出版信息

Bull World Health Organ. 2007 Jun;85(6):474-81. doi: 10.2471/blt.06.036202.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of immigration on life expectancy in Australia for the period from 1981 to 2003, and to compare life expectancy of the Australian-born population with that of other countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

METHODS

Standard life-table methods using age-specific all-cause mortality and population data from 1981 to 2003 were used to calculate life expectancy at birth (e0) for the total Australian population (including migrants) and for people born in Australia (excluding migrants). Mean differences in life expectancy for each sex were compared using paired t-tests. Rankings of life expectancy among OECD countries were reassessed, and rank changes measured using the Wilcoxon signed rank test.

FINDINGS

Life expectancy of males and females was significantly lower in the Australian-born group than in the total Australian population. During 1981 to 2003, there was a mean difference in life expectancy of 0.41 years (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.37-0.44; t(17) = 27.0; P < 0.0001) in males and 0.29 years (95% CI: 0.26-0.31; t(17) = 27.6; P < 0.0001) in females between the Australian-born and the total population. After excluding migrant groups, Australia no longer ranked among the top five OECD countries with the highest life expectancy in the two most recent years examined.

CONCLUSION

While Australia has one of the highest life expectancies in the industrialized world, this is partly attributable to immigration of populations with low rates of mortality. This effect needs to be considered in international comparative assessments of mortality levels.

摘要

目的

调查1981年至2003年期间移民对澳大利亚预期寿命的影响,并将澳大利亚出生人口的预期寿命与经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)其他国家的预期寿命进行比较。

方法

使用1981年至2003年按年龄划分的全因死亡率和人口数据的标准生命表方法,计算澳大利亚总人口(包括移民)和澳大利亚出生人口(不包括移民)的出生时预期寿命(e0)。使用配对t检验比较每种性别的预期寿命平均差异。重新评估经合组织国家中预期寿命的排名,并使用Wilcoxon符号秩检验测量排名变化。

结果

澳大利亚出生组中男性和女性的预期寿命显著低于澳大利亚总人口。在1981年至2003年期间,澳大利亚出生人口与总人口之间男性的预期寿命平均差异为0.41岁(95%置信区间,CI:0.37 - 0.44;t(17) = 27.0;P < 0.0001),女性为0.29岁(95%CI:0.26 - 0.31;t(17) = 27.6;P < 0.0001)。在排除移民群体后,澳大利亚在最近两年所考察的经合组织国家中不再位列预期寿命最高的前五个国家。

结论

虽然澳大利亚在工业化世界中预期寿命最高,但这部分归因于死亡率较低人群的移民。在死亡率水平的国际比较评估中需要考虑这种影响。

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