Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK.
Department of Burns and Plastic Surgery, University Hospital South Manchester, Manchester M23 9LT, UK.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jan 18;18(2):761. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18020761.
With a reduction in the mortality rate of burn patients, length of stay (LOS) has been increasingly adopted as an outcome measure. Some studies have attempted to identify factors that explain a burn patient's LOS. However, few have investigated the association between LOS and a patient's mental and socioeconomic status. There is anecdotal evidence for links between these factors; uncovering these will aid in better addressing the specific physical and emotional needs of burn patients and facilitate the planning of scarce hospital resources. Here, we employ machine learning (clustering) and statistical models (regression) to investigate whether segmentation by socioeconomic/mental status can improve the performance and interpretability of an upstream predictive model, relative to a unitary model. Although we found no significant difference in the unitary model's performance and the segment-specific models, the interpretation of the segment-specific models reveals a reduced impact of burn severity in LOS prediction with increasing adverse socioeconomic and mental status. Furthermore, the socioeconomic segments' models highlight an increased influence of living circumstances and source of injury on LOS. These findings suggest that in addition to ensuring that patients' physical needs are met, management of their mental status is crucial for delivering an effective care plan.
随着烧伤患者死亡率的降低,住院时间(LOS)已越来越多地被用作一种评估结果的指标。一些研究试图确定可以解释烧伤患者 LOS 的因素。然而,很少有研究调查 LOS 与患者的精神和社会经济状况之间的关系。有一些传闻证据表明这些因素之间存在关联;揭示这些关联将有助于更好地满足烧伤患者的具体身体和情感需求,并有助于规划稀缺的医院资源。在这里,我们使用机器学习(聚类)和统计模型(回归)来研究通过社会经济/精神状态进行细分是否可以提高上游预测模型的性能和可解释性,相对于单一模型。尽管我们发现单一模型的性能和特定细分模型之间没有显著差异,但特定细分模型的解释表明,随着不利的社会经济和精神状态的增加,烧伤严重程度对 LOS 预测的影响降低。此外,社会经济细分模型突出了生活环境和受伤来源对 LOS 的影响增加。这些发现表明,除了确保满足患者的身体需求外,管理他们的精神状态对于提供有效的护理计划至关重要。