Vaccine Research Area, FISABIO-Public Health, Avda. Cataluña, 21, 46020 Valencia, Spain.
Instituto Universitario de Matemática Multidisciplinar, 8G building, 2nd Floor, Camino de Vera, Universitat Politècnica de Valéncia, 46022 Valencia, Spain.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Jan 22;18(3):963. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18030963.
A major challenge in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine programs is the universal gender-neutral recommendation, as well as estimation of its long-term effect. The objective of this study is to predict the added benefit of male vaccination, especially in men who have sex with men (MSM), and to analyze the impact of the program on society. We propose a mathematical model of the HPV infection based on a network paradigm. Data from Spain allowed constructing the sexual network. HPV force of infection was taken from literature. Different scenarios using variable vaccine coverage in both males and females were studied. Strong herd immunity is shown in the heterosexual population, with an important decrease of HPV 6/11 infections both in men and in unvaccinated women with an only-women vaccination at 14 years of age. No impact of this program occurred in the infection incidence in MSM. This group would only benefit from a vaccination program that includes males. However, the impact at short term would be lower than in heterosexual men. The protection of MSM can only be achieved by direct vaccination of males. This may have important consequences for public health.
人乳头瘤病毒（HPV）疫苗项目面临的一个主要挑战是普遍推荐不分性别的疫苗接种，以及估计其长期效果。本研究的目的是预测男性接种疫苗的额外益处，特别是在男男性接触者（MSM）中，并分析该计划对社会的影响。我们提出了一种基于网络范例的 HPV 感染的数学模型。西班牙的数据允许构建性网络。HPV 的感染力来自文献。研究了在男性和女性中使用不同疫苗接种覆盖率的不同场景。在异性恋人群中显示出强烈的群体免疫，仅对 14 岁的女性进行女性疫苗接种，可显著降低 HPV 6/11 的感染率。在 MSM 中，该计划对感染发病率没有影响。该人群只有在包括男性的疫苗接种计划中才能受益。然而，短期的影响将低于异性恋男性。只有对男性进行直接疫苗接种才能保护 MSM。这可能对公共卫生产生重要影响。
