Lev Tomer, Shmueli Erez
Department of Industrial Engineering, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, 69978 Tel-Aviv, Israel.
Appl Netw Sci. 2021;6(1):6. doi: 10.1007/s41109-021-00352-z. Epub 2021 Jan 22.
Vaccination has become one of the most prominent measures for preventing the spread of infectious diseases in modern times. However, mass vaccination of the population may not always be possible due to high costs, severe side effects, or shortage. Therefore, identifying individuals with a high potential of spreading the disease and targeted vaccination of these individuals is of high importance. While various strategies for identifying such individuals have been proposed in the network epidemiology literature, the vast majority of them rely solely on the network topology. In contrast, in this paper, we propose a novel targeted vaccination strategy that considers both the static network topology and the dynamic states of the network nodes over time. This allows our strategy to find the individuals with the highest potential to spread the disease at any given point in time. Extensive evaluation that we conducted over various real-world network topologies, network sizes, vaccination budgets, and parameters of the contagion model, demonstrates that the proposed strategy considerably outperforms existing state-of-the-art targeted vaccination strategies in reducing the spread of the disease. In particular, the proposed vaccination strategy further reduces the number of infected nodes by 23-99%, compared to a vaccination strategy based on Betweenness Centrality.
疫苗接种已成为现代预防传染病传播的最突出措施之一。然而,由于成本高昂、副作用严重或供应短缺,大规模人群疫苗接种并非总是可行。因此,识别具有高疾病传播潜力的个体并对这些个体进行有针对性的疫苗接种至关重要。虽然网络流行病学文献中已提出各种识别此类个体的策略,但绝大多数策略仅依赖于网络拓扑结构。相比之下,在本文中,我们提出了一种新颖的有针对性的疫苗接种策略,该策略同时考虑静态网络拓扑结构和网络节点随时间的动态状态。这使我们的策略能够在任何给定时间点找到具有最高疾病传播潜力的个体。我们在各种真实世界的网络拓扑结构、网络规模、疫苗接种预算和传染模型参数上进行的广泛评估表明,所提出的策略在减少疾病传播方面大大优于现有的最先进的有针对性的疫苗接种策略。特别是,与基于介数中心性的疫苗接种策略相比,所提出的疫苗接种策略进一步将感染节点数量减少了23% - 99%。