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多层网络中具有隔离的流行病模型。

Epidemic Model with Isolation in Multilayer Networks.

作者信息

Zuzek L G Alvarez, Stanley H E, Braunstein L A

机构信息

Departamento de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Instituto de Investigaciones Físicas de Mar del Plata (IFIMAR-CONICET), Deán Funes 3350, 7600 Mar del Plata, Argentina.

Center for Polymer Studies, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2015 Jul 15;5:12151. doi: 10.1038/srep12151.

Abstract

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model has successfully mimicked the propagation of such airborne diseases as influenza A (H1N1). Although the SIR model has recently been studied in a multilayer networks configuration, in almost all the research the isolation of infected individuals is disregarded. Hence we focus our study in an epidemic model in a two-layer network, and we use an isolation parameter w to measure the effect of quarantining infected individuals from both layers during an isolation period tw. We call this process the Susceptible-Infected-Isolated-Recovered (SIIR) model. Using the framework of link percolation we find that isolation increases the critical epidemic threshold of the disease because the time in which infection can spread is reduced. In this scenario we find that this threshold increases with w and tw. When the isolation period is maximum there is a critical threshold for w above which the disease never becomes an epidemic. We simulate the process and find an excellent agreement with the theoretical results.

摘要

易感-感染-康复(SIR)模型已成功模拟了甲型流感(H1N1)等空气传播疾病的传播。尽管最近在多层网络配置中对SIR模型进行了研究,但几乎所有研究都忽略了对感染个体的隔离。因此,我们将研究重点放在两层网络中的流行病模型上,并使用隔离参数w来衡量在隔离期tw内对两层感染个体进行隔离的效果。我们将此过程称为易感-感染-隔离-康复(SIIR)模型。利用链路渗流框架,我们发现隔离会提高疾病的临界流行阈值,因为感染传播的时间减少了。在这种情况下,我们发现该阈值随w和tw的增加而增加。当隔离期达到最大值时,w存在一个临界阈值,超过该阈值疾病就不会爆发流行。我们对该过程进行了模拟,发现与理论结果非常吻合。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2e4e/4502411/a9906513a8bc/srep12151-f1.jpg

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