Faculty of Economics and Management, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, People's Republic of China.
School of Statistics, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Jilin, 130117, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(22):27639-27654. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12536-2. Epub 2021 Jan 29.
Based on the Government Work Report of 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2015, this article combines economic growth expectations data and keyword capture to explore the relationship between government economic growth expectations and air pollution. The main results are as follows: (1) The economic growth expectations of local governments, and the "increment" between prefecture-level and provincial governments' growth expectations for economic growth have significantly increased air pollution. The certainty and completion degree of economic growth expectations have different effects on air pollution, and the impact of the expected rigid constraint and overfulfilled degree on air pollution are prominent. When the city's real economic growth exceeds 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4% of growth expectations, respectively, SO emissions will increase by 10.577%, 10.671%, 11.825%, and 16.296%, and PM concentration will increase by 2.115%, 2.503%, 3.592%, and 4.421%. (2) The government's annual economic growth expectations have different effects on different types of technological innovation. For every 1% increase in the government's economic growth expectations, the green technology will be reduced by 0.956% which exacerbates regional air pollution. Furthermore, the green technology can explain 6.5% of air pollution induced by government economic growth expectations.
基于 2004 年至 2015 年中国 265 个地级市的政府工作报告，本文结合经济增长预期数据和关键词捕捉，探讨了地方政府经济增长预期与空气污染之间的关系。主要结果如下：（1）地方政府的经济增长预期，以及地市级政府与省级政府对经济增长的增长预期之间的“增量”，显著增加了空气污染。经济增长预期的确定性和完成程度对空气污染有不同的影响，预期刚性约束和超额完成程度对空气污染的影响显著。当城市实际经济增长分别超过增长预期的 1%、2%、3%和 4%时，SO 排放量将分别增加 10.577%、10.671%、11.825%和 16.296%，PM 浓度将分别增加 2.115%、2.503%、3.592%和 4.421%。（2）政府的年度经济增长预期对不同类型的技术创新有不同的影响。政府经济增长预期每增加 1%，绿色技术将减少 0.956%，从而加剧区域空气污染。此外，绿色技术可以解释政府经济增长预期导致的空气污染的 6.5%。
