School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China.
College of City Construction, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Feb 6;20(4):2831. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20042831.
Economic growth target (EGT) has become an essential tool for macroeconomic administration all around the world. This study examines the effect and mechanisms of EGT on environmental pollution (EP) by using economic growth target data from provincial Government Work Reports in China from 2003-2019. The conclusions denote that EGT significantly aggravates regional EP, and it still stands after robustness tests and instrumental variable (IV) estimation. The result of mediating effect shows that EGT aggravates EP mainly from three ways: investment surge, technological innovation, and resource allocation. The result of the moderating effect shows that government's fiscal space positively adjusts the effect of EGT on EP, while environmental regulation negatively adjusts the effect of EGT on EP. The heterogeneity test reflects that the effect of EGT on EP is more significant on provinces that adopt a "hard constraint" setting method and fulfill EGT. Our study provides a reference to better balance the link between EGT and sustainable development for the government department.
经济增长目标（EGT）已成为世界范围内宏观经济管理的重要工具。本研究利用中国省级政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据，从 2003 年至 2019 年，考察了 EGT 对环境污染（EP）的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明，EGT 显著加剧了区域 EP，且在稳健性检验和工具变量（IV）估计后仍然成立。中介效应结果表明，EGT 主要通过投资激增、技术创新和资源配置三种方式加剧 EP。调节效应的结果表明，政府财政空间正向调节 EGT 对 EP 的影响，而环境监管则负向调节 EGT 对 EP 的影响。异质性检验反映出，在采用“硬约束”设定方法并完成 EGT 的省份，EGT 对 EP 的影响更为显著。本研究为政府部门更好地平衡 EGT 与可持续发展之间的关系提供了参考。
