Climatic requirements of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, with a consideration of its possible geographic range up to 2090.

The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, is an ectoparasite of medical and veterinary importance in Australia. The feeding of I. holocyclus is associated with an ascending flaccid paralysis which kills many dogs and cats each year, with the development of mammalian meat allergy in some humans, and with the transmission of Rickettsia australis (Australian scrub typhus) to humans. Although I. holocyclus has been well studied, it is still not known exactly why this tick cannot establish outside of its present geographic distribution. Here, we aim to account for the presence as well as the absence of I. holocyclus in regions of Australia. We modelled the climatic requirements of I. holocyclus with two methods, CLIMEX, and a new envelope-model approach which we name the 'climatic-range method'. These methods allowed us to account for 93% and 96% of the geographic distribution of I. holocyclus, respectively. Our analyses indicated that the geographic range of I. holocyclus may not only shift south towards Melbourne, but may also expand in the future, depending on which climate-change scenario comes to pass.