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一个全面的时空感染模型。

A comprehensive spatial-temporal infection model.

作者信息

Ramaswamy Harisankar, Oberai Assad A, Yortsos Yannis C

机构信息

Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, United States.

Mork Family Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California, United States.

出版信息

Chem Eng Sci. 2021 Apr 6;233:116347. doi: 10.1016/j.ces.2020.116347. Epub 2021 Jan 6.

Abstract

Motivated by analogies between the spread of infections and of chemical processes, we develop a model that accounts for infection and transport where infected populations correspond to chemical species. Areal densities emerge as the key variables, thus capturing the effect of spatial density. We derive expressions for the kinetics of the infection rates, and for the important parameter , that include areal density and its spatial distribution. We present results for a batch reactor, the chemical process equivalent of the SIR model, where we examine how the dependence of on process extent, the initial density of infected individuals, and fluctuations in population densities effect the progression of the disease. We then consider spatially distributed systems. Diffusion generates traveling waves that propagate at a constant speed, proportional to the square root of the diffusivity and . Preliminary analysis shows a similar behavior for the effect of stochastic advection.

摘要

受感染传播与化学过程之间类比的启发,我们开发了一个模型,该模型考虑了感染和传播情况,其中受感染人群对应于化学物种。面密度成为关键变量,从而捕捉到空间密度的影响。我们推导了感染率动力学以及重要参数的表达式,其中包括面密度及其空间分布。我们给出了间歇反应器的结果,它是SIR模型的化学过程等效物,我们在其中研究了该参数对过程程度、感染个体的初始密度以及种群密度波动的依赖性如何影响疾病的进展。然后我们考虑空间分布系统。扩散产生以恒定速度传播的行波,该速度与扩散率的平方根成正比。初步分析表明,随机平流的影响具有类似的行为。

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