2019冠状病毒病：封锁措施、死亡率与国内生产总值增长：2020年前三季度的证据
COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth: Evidence for the First Three Quarters of 2020.
作者信息
König Michael, Winkler Adalbert
机构信息
International and Development Finance, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, Adickesallee 32-34, 60322 Frankfurt a. M., Germany.
出版信息
Inter Econ. 2021;56(1):32-39. doi: 10.1007/s10272-021-0948-y. Epub 2021 Jan 26.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered an unprecedented economic crisis. This article analyses the impact of mandatory social distancing imposed by lockdown policies and voluntary social distancing triggered by COVID-19 fatality rates on GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2020 for a sample of 42 countries. OLS and IV results indicate an important role for the fatality rate, while panel regressions show that lockdown stringency is the more important driver of growth. When including lagged variables, more restrictive measures lead to lower GDP growth in the same quarter but are associated with a positive, catching-up effect in the following quarter.
摘要
新冠疫情引发了一场前所未有的经济危机。本文分析了封锁政策实施的强制性社交距离措施以及新冠死亡率引发的自愿性社交距离措施对42个国家样本在2020年前三季度GDP增长的影响。普通最小二乘法（OLS）和工具变量法（IV）的结果表明死亡率起着重要作用，而面板回归显示封锁严格程度是增长的更重要驱动因素。当纳入滞后变量时，更严格的措施会导致同一季度GDP增长降低，但与下一季度的积极追赶效应相关。
相似文献
1
COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth: Evidence for the First Three Quarters of 2020.2019冠状病毒病：封锁措施、死亡率与国内生产总值增长：2020年前三季度的证据
Inter Econ. 2021;56(1):32-39. doi: 10.1007/s10272-021-0948-y. Epub 2021 Jan 26.
2
Nationwide Lockdown, Population Density, and Financial Distress Brings Inadequacy to Manage COVID-19: Leading the Services Sector into the Trajectory of Global Depression.全国范围的封锁、人口密度和经济困境导致应对新冠疫情不力：使服务业步入全球衰退轨道。
Healthcare (Basel). 2021 Feb 17;9(2):220. doi: 10.3390/healthcare9020220.
3
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth.新冠疫情对全球国内生产总值增长的影响。
J Jpn Int Econ. 2023 Jun;68:101258. doi: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101258. Epub 2023 Mar 22.
4
COVID-19 and Economic Growth: Does Good Government Performance Pay Off?新冠疫情与经济增长：良好的政府表现会有回报吗？
Inter Econ. 2020;55(4):224-231. doi: 10.1007/s10272-020-0906-0. Epub 2020 Jul 28.
5
Global supply chains in the pandemic.疫情中的全球供应链。
J Int Econ. 2021 Nov;133:103534. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103534. Epub 2021 Sep 22.
6
Real-Time Estimation of the Short-Run Impact of COVID-19 on Economic Activity Using Electricity Market Data.利用电力市场数据实时估算新冠疫情对经济活动的短期影响
Environ Resour Econ (Dordr). 2020;76(4):885-900. doi: 10.1007/s10640-020-00467-4. Epub 2020 Aug 4.
7
Trading Health for Wealth: The Effect of COVID-19 Response Stringency.用健康换财富：新冠疫情应对力度的影响。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Nov 24;17(23):8725. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17238725.
8
Trajectories of anxiety and depressive symptoms during enforced isolation due to COVID-19 in England: a longitudinal observational study.因 COVID-19 而在英国强制隔离期间焦虑和抑郁症状的轨迹：一项纵向观察研究。
Lancet Psychiatry. 2021 Feb;8(2):141-149. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(20)30482-X. Epub 2020 Dec 9.
9
Pandemic lockdown, healthcare policies and human rights: integrating opposed views on COVID-19 public health mitigation measures.大流行封锁、医疗保健政策和人权：整合对 COVID-19 公共卫生缓解措施的相反观点。
Rev Cardiovasc Med. 2020 Dec 30;21(4):509-516. doi: 10.31083/j.rcm.2020.04.274.
10
Lockdowns and the US Unemployment Crisis.封锁与美国失业危机。
Econ Disaster Clim Chang. 2021;5(3):449-463. doi: 10.1007/s41885-021-00092-5. Epub 2021 Oct 11.
引用本文的文献
1
Economic impact of COVID-19 across national boundaries: The role of government responses.新冠疫情跨国界的经济影响：政府应对措施的作用。
J Int Bus Stud. 2023 May 4:1-20. doi: 10.1057/s41267-023-00612-3.
2
Non-pharmaceutical interventions in the State of Georgia: Economic implications.佐治亚州的非药物干预措施：经济影响。
Ethics Med Public Health. 2023 Jun;28:100891. doi: 10.1016/j.jemep.2023.100891. Epub 2023 Apr 20.
3
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth.新冠疫情对全球国内生产总值增长的影响。
J Jpn Int Econ. 2023 Jun;68:101258. doi: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101258. Epub 2023 Mar 22.
4
The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions - Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach.估算 COVID-19 干预措施的直接和间接影响的挑战 - 迈向综合经济和流行病学方法。
Econ Hum Biol. 2023 Apr;49:101198. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2022.101198. Epub 2022 Nov 8.
5
The implications of globalization on COVID-19 vaccination in Europe.全球化对欧洲 COVID-19 疫苗接种的影响。
Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 19;12(1):17474. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21493-w.
6
European Governments' Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic during the First Wave: Resetting Governance Systems to Cope More Effectively with Future Shocks.欧洲各国政府在第一波新冠疫情期间的应对措施：重置治理体系以更有效地应对未来冲击。
Appl Spat Anal Policy. 2022 Sep 19:1-39. doi: 10.1007/s12061-022-09481-z.
7
Public Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Australia: The Role of the Morrison Government.澳大利亚 COVID-19 大流行的公共卫生管理：莫里森政府的作用。
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Aug 20;19(16):10400. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191610400.
8
Epidemic management and control through risk-dependent individual contact interventions.基于风险的个体接触干预的传染病管理与控制。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Jun 23;18(6):e1010171. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010171. eCollection 2022 Jun.
9
Aggressive containment, suppression, and mitigation of covid-19: lessons learnt from eight countries.积极管控、抑制和缓解 2019 冠状病毒病：八个国家的经验教训。
BMJ. 2021 Nov 28;375:e067508. doi: 10.1136/bmj-2021-067508.
10
The impact of government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on GDP growth: Does strategy matter?**政府应对 COVID-19 大流行对 GDP 增长的影响：策略是否重要？**
PLoS One. 2021 Nov 5;16(11):e0259362. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259362. eCollection 2021.
本文引用的文献
1
Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.推断政府干预 COVID-19 的效果。
Science. 2021 Feb 19;371(6531). doi: 10.1126/science.abd9338. Epub 2020 Dec 15.
2
Social Distancing Requirements and the Determinants of the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery in Europe.社交距离要求与欧洲新冠疫情衰退及复苏的决定因素
Inter Econ. 2020;55(6):365-371. doi: 10.1007/s10272-020-0935-8. Epub 2020 Dec 1.
3
Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020.恐惧、封锁与转移：2020年大流行经济衰退驱动因素比较
J Public Econ. 2021 Jan;193:104311. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104311. Epub 2020 Nov 25.
4
COVID-19 and Economic Growth: Does Good Government Performance Pay Off?新冠疫情与经济增长：良好的政府表现会有回报吗？
Inter Econ. 2020;55(4):224-231. doi: 10.1007/s10272-020-0906-0. Epub 2020 Jul 28.
5
The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations.COVID-19 对小企业结果和预期的影响。
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 28;117(30):17656-17666. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2006991117. Epub 2020 Jul 10.
6
[COVID-19, Influenza and Economic Activity - An Impact Analysis Perspective].[新冠疫情、流感与经济活动——影响分析视角]
Wirtschaftsdienst. 2020;100(5):344-350. doi: 10.1007/s10273-020-2655-x. Epub 2020 May 20.
Zotero 插件