Gagnon Joseph E, Kamin Steven B, Kearns John
Peterson Institute for International Economics.
American Enterprise Institute.
J Jpn Int Econ. 2023 Jun;68:101258. doi: 10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101258. Epub 2023 Mar 22.
This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of real GDP over the course of 2020 and 2021. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic variables and global trade in transmitting the economic effects of COVID-19. We estimate panel data regressions of the quarterly growth in real GDP on pandemic variables for 90 countries over the period 2020 Q1 through 2021 Q4. We find that readings on the number of COVID-19 deaths had a very small effect in our aggregate sample. On the other hand, changes in the stringency of the lockdown measures taken by governments to restrict the spread of the virus were an important influence on GDP. The economic effects of the pandemic differed between rich and poor countries: COVID-19 deaths exerted a somewhat greater drag on GDP in advanced economies, although this difference was not statistically significant, whereas lockdown restrictions were more injurious to economic activity in emerging and developing economies. In addition to these domestic pandemic effects, global trade represented a significant channel through which the economic effects of the pandemic spilled across national borders. This finding underscores how globalization makes each country vulnerable not only to medical contagion from the COVID-19 pandemic, but to economic contagion as well.
本文描述了首批试图评估2020年至2021年期间新冠疫情对全球实际GDP增长轨迹影响的尝试之一。这也是首批区分国内变量和全球贸易在传播新冠疫情经济影响中所起作用的努力之一。我们估计了2020年第一季度至2021年第四季度期间90个国家实际GDP季度增长对疫情变量的面板数据回归。我们发现，在我们的总体样本中，新冠死亡病例数的读数影响非常小。另一方面，政府为限制病毒传播而采取的封锁措施严格程度的变化对GDP有重要影响。疫情对富国和穷国的经济影响有所不同：新冠死亡病例对发达经济体的GDP拖累更大，尽管这种差异在统计上并不显著，而封锁限制对新兴和发展中经济体的经济活动伤害更大。除了这些国内疫情影响外，全球贸易是疫情经济影响跨境蔓延的一个重要渠道。这一发现凸显了全球化如何使每个国家不仅容易受到新冠疫情的医疗传染，也容易受到经济传染。
