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通过州际和国际旅行对美国的新冠病毒传播进行建模,并评估政府公共卫生干预措施的影响。

Modelling COVID-19 transmission in the United States through interstate and foreign travels and evaluating impact of governmental public health interventions.

作者信息

Shah Nita H, Sheoran Nisha, Jayswal Ekta, Shukla Dhairya, Shukla Nehal, Shukla Jagdish, Shah Yash

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Gujarat University, Ahmedabad, 380009, Gujarat, India.

Medical College of Georgia, 1120, 15th St, Augusta, GA 30912, USA.

出版信息

J Math Anal Appl. 2022 Oct 15;514(2):124896. doi: 10.1016/j.jmaa.2020.124896. Epub 2020 Dec 22.

Abstract

: The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019. The disease has spread to 210 countries and has been labelled as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Modelling, evaluating, and predicting the rate of disease transmission is crucial in understanding optimal methods for prevention and control. Our aim is to assess the impact of interstate and foreign travel and public health interventions implemented by the United States government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. : A disjoint mutually exclusive compartmental model was developed to study transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus. A system of nonlinear differential equations was formulated and the basic reproduction number was computed. Stability of the model was evaluated at the equilibrium points. Optimal controls were applied in the form of travel restrictions and quarantine. Numerical simulations were conducted. : Analysis shows that the model is locally asymptomatically stable, at endemic and foreigners free equilibrium points. Without any mitigation measures, infectivity and subsequent hospitalization of the population increased. When interstate and foreign travel was restricted and the population placed under quarantine, the probability of exposure and subsequent infection decreased significantly; furthermore, the recovery rate increased substantially. : Interstate and foreign travel restrictions, in addition to quarantine, are necessary in effectively controlling the pandemic. The United States has controlled COVID-19 spread by implementing quarantine and restricting foreign travel. The government can further strengthen restrictions and reduce spread within the nation more effectively by implementing restrictions on interstate travel.

摘要

2019年12月,中国武汉报告了首例新冠肺炎病例。该疾病已传播至210个国家,并被世界卫生组织(WHO)列为大流行病。对疾病传播速率进行建模、评估和预测,对于理解预防和控制的最佳方法至关重要。我们的目标是评估美国政府实施的州际和国际旅行以及公共卫生干预措施对新冠肺炎大流行的影响。

开发了一个不相交的互斥 compartmental 模型来研究新型冠状病毒的传播动态。建立了一个非线性微分方程组,并计算了基本再生数。在平衡点处评估了模型的稳定性。以旅行限制和隔离的形式应用了最优控制。进行了数值模拟。

分析表明,该模型在地方病平衡点和无外国人平衡点处局部渐近稳定。在没有任何缓解措施的情况下,人群的传染性和随后的住院率增加。当州际和国际旅行受到限制且人群被隔离时,接触和随后感染的概率显著降低;此外,康复率大幅提高。

除了隔离之外,州际和国际旅行限制对于有效控制大流行是必要的。美国通过实施隔离和限制国际旅行控制了新冠肺炎的传播。政府可以通过对州际旅行实施限制来进一步加强限制并更有效地减少国内的传播。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/93ae/7831472/26ffbcebe7f4/gr001_lrg.jpg

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