Mohamed Islam Abdalla, Aissa Anis Ben, Hussein Loay F, Taloba Ahmed I, Kallel Tarak
Department of Computer Science, College of Science & Arts, Jouf University, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Physics, College of Science & Arts, Jouf University, Saudi Arabia.
Mater Today Proc. 2021 Jan 23. doi: 10.1016/j.matpr.2021.01.088.
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection that rose in a city in the Chinese province of Hubei, Wuhan. The world did not wait too long until the virus spread to reach Europe, Africa, and America to be a global pandemic. Due to the lack of information about the behaviour of the virus, several prediction models are in use all over around the world for decision making and taking precautionary actions. Therefor, in this paper, a new model named MSIR based on SIR model is proposed. The model is used to predict the spread of the disease in three cities Riyadh, Hufof and Jeddah in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Also the estimation of disease propagation with and without containment measure is carried out. We think that the results could be used to enhance the predictability of the pandemic outbreaks in other cities and to build long term artificial intelligence prediction model.
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）是一种病毒感染，起源于中国湖北省武汉市。没过多久，病毒就传播到欧洲、非洲和美洲，成为全球大流行疾病。由于缺乏关于该病毒行为的信息，世界各地使用了几种预测模型来进行决策和采取预防措施。因此，本文提出了一种基于SIR模型的名为MSIR的新模型。该模型用于预测沙特阿拉伯王国利雅得、胡富夫和吉达三个城市的疾病传播情况。此外，还对有无防控措施时的疾病传播情况进行了估计。我们认为，这些结果可用于提高其他城市大流行疫情的可预测性，并建立长期的人工智能预测模型。
