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经济增长、国际贸易和城市化是否能维持撒哈拉以南非洲的环境可持续性?分位数和因果关系程序的见解。

Does economic growth, international trade, and urbanization uphold environmental sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa? Insights from quantile and causality procedures.

机构信息

Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa, Abuja, Nigeria.

Department of Economics, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(22):28222-28233. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12539-z. Epub 2021 Feb 2.

Abstract

International trade and urbanization are increasing at an unprecedented rate in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The region has also witnessed a fair share of economic growth, with minimal investment and consumption of renewables. Therefore, this study investigates the influence of economic growth, international trade, and urbanization on CO emissions in SSA. The current study enriches the existing literature by employing the panel quantile regression analysis to account for existing levels of CO emissions in the region. Empirical findings reveal that GDP increases CO emissions across quantiles, especially in countries where the existing level of CO emissions is low. International trade improves environmental sustainability in countries where the existing levels of CO emissions are at their lowest and highest levels but exacts a reversed impact on CO emissions at the median. Further findings suggest that urbanization increases CO emissions across the observed quantiles with a more pronounced effect in countries where the existing levels of CO emissions are at its lowest level. The study also reveals a bi-directional causality between economic growth, international trade, urbanization, and the emissions of CO. The limitations of the study and possible direction for future research have been highlighted. Policy directions are discussed.

摘要

国际贸易和城市化在撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)正以前所未有的速度增长。该地区也见证了相当程度的经济增长,对可再生能源的投资和消费却微乎其微。因此,本研究调查了经济增长、国际贸易和城市化对 SSA 地区二氧化碳排放的影响。本研究通过采用面板分位数回归分析来考虑该地区现有的二氧化碳排放水平,丰富了现有文献。实证结果表明,国内生产总值在各个分位数上都增加了二氧化碳排放,特别是在二氧化碳排放现有水平较低的国家。国际贸易在二氧化碳排放现有水平最低和最高的国家提高了环境可持续性,但在中位数上对二氧化碳排放产生了相反的影响。进一步的研究结果表明,城市化在观测到的分位数上增加了二氧化碳排放,在二氧化碳排放现有水平最低的国家影响更为显著。该研究还揭示了经济增长、国际贸易、城市化和二氧化碳排放之间存在双向因果关系。研究还强调了研究的局限性和未来研究的可能方向。讨论了政策方向。

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