Akimkin V G, Kuzin S N, Semenenko T A, Shipulina O Yu, Yatsyshina S B, Tivanova E V, Kalenskaya A V, Solovyova I V, Vershinina M A, Kvasova O A, Ploskireva A A, Mamoshina M V, Elkina M A, Klushkina V V, Andreeva E E, Ivanenko A V
Central Research Institute for Epidemiology.
National Research Centre for Epidemiology and Microbiology named after the honorary academician N.F. Gamaleya, Ministry of Health of Russian Federation.
Vopr Virusol. 2020 Sep 3;65(4):203-211. doi: 10.36233/0507-4088-2020-65-4-203-211.
The purpose of the study is to analyze patterns demonstrated by the COVID-19 epidemic process in a megacity during the increase, stabilization and reduction in the incidence, and to evaluate the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention measures.
The comprehensive study incorporating epidemiological, molecular genetic and statistical research methods was conducted to analyze the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Moscow during the COVID- 19 pandemic.
It was found that the exponential growth in COVID-19 cases was prevented due to the most stringent control and restrictive measures deployed in Moscow to break the chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and due to people who were very disciplined in complying with the self-isolation rules. The analysis of the dynamics in detection of new COVID-19 cases showed that in a megacity, the impact of social distancing and self-isolation would become apparent only after 3.5 incubation periods, where the maximum length of the period is 14 days. It was discovered that the detection frequency of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in relatively healthy population and its dynamics are important monitoring parameters, especially during the increase and stabilization in the COVID-19 incidence, and are instrumental in predicting the development of the epidemic situation within a range of 1-2 incubation periods (14-28 days). In Moscow, the case fatality rate was 1.73% over the observation period (6/3/2020-23/6/2020).
The epidemiological analysis of the COVID-19 situation in Moscow showed certain patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 spread and helped evaluate the effectiveness of the epidemic prevention measures aimed at breaking the routes of transmission of the pathogen.
本研究的目的是分析特大城市在新冠疫情发病率上升、稳定和下降过程中所呈现的模式，并评估疫情防控措施的有效性。
采用流行病学、分子遗传学和统计学研究方法进行综合研究，以分析新冠疫情期间严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（SARS-CoV-2）在莫斯科的传播情况。
研究发现，由于莫斯科采取了最严格的控制和限制措施以阻断SARS-CoV-2传播链，并且人们严格遵守自我隔离规定，新冠病例的指数增长得以遏制。对新增新冠病例检测动态的分析表明，在特大城市，社交距离和自我隔离的影响仅在3.5个潜伏期后才会显现，最长潜伏期为14天。研究发现，相对健康人群中SARS-CoV-2 RNA检测频率及其动态变化是重要的监测参数，尤其是在新冠发病率上升和稳定期间，有助于预测1-2个潜伏期（14-28天）内疫情的发展。在莫斯科，观察期（2020年3月6日至2020年6月23日）内的病死率为1.73%。
对莫斯科新冠疫情的流行病学分析揭示了SARS-CoV-2传播的某些模式，并有助于评估旨在阻断病原体传播途径的疫情防控措施的有效性。
