Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hanover, Germany.
Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hanover, Germany.
J Environ Manage. 2021 Apr 15;284:112014. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112014. Epub 2021 Feb 5.
This study proposes an innovative socio-hydrological modeling framework for the development of environmental policies that are tailored to farmers' attitudes and economic interests but also optimize environmental criteria. From a farmers' on-site survey, a behavior model is developed based on a modified Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The dynamics of the social and environmental system is implemented by coupling an agent-based model (ABM) with an agro-hydrological model for vegetative filter strips (VFS). A case study is conducted with farmers from the Larqui river basin, Chile to understand their standpoint on VFS to reduce soil loss in their agricultural fields and protect water bodies. Partial least square structural equation modeling is used to analyze the survey on farmers' aspiration and attitudes. It showed that the constructs added to TPB (behavioral morality, behavioral willingness, knowledge) had a significant effect on modeling the intention and behavior of farmers to have VFS. Based on the survey, the farmers were categorized into perceptive, proactive, bounded rational and interactive agents. An ABM was developed using the behavioral categorization, related decision rules, and utility functions of agricultural activities including the VFS implementation and management. The results of the ABM corroborate with the survey of the farmers. The survey supports the view that the decision on the width of VFS is not solely dependent on the utility generated and the reduction in soil losses but also on the behavior of farmers. This behavioral sociohydrological modeling framework is capable of supporting policy-makers in developing tailored environmental policies that might improve the acceptance of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers.
本研究提出了一个创新的社会-水文建模框架，用于制定环境政策，这些政策既符合农民的态度和经济利益，又能优化环境标准。通过对农民进行现场调查，基于修正的计划行为理论（TPB）开发了一个行为模型。通过将基于代理的模型（ABM）与用于植被过滤带（VFS）的农业水文模型耦合，实现了社会和环境系统的动态。通过对智利拉奎河流域的农民进行案例研究，了解他们对 VFS 的看法，以减少农业用地的土壤流失并保护水体。使用偏最小二乘结构方程模型分析了农民对 VFS 的愿望和态度的调查。结果表明，在 TPB 中添加的构造（行为道德、行为意愿、知识）对建模农民对 VFS 的意愿和行为具有显著影响。基于调查，将农民分为感知型、积极主动型、有限理性型和互动型代理。使用行为分类、相关决策规则和包括 VFS 实施和管理在内的农业活动的效用函数开发了 ABM。ABM 的结果与对农民的调查相符。调查支持这样一种观点，即 VFS 宽度的决策不仅取决于产生的效用和土壤流失的减少，还取决于农民的行为。这个基于行为的社会-水文建模框架能够为决策者制定定制化的环境政策提供支持，从而提高农民对可持续农业实践的接受程度。
