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人为气候变化正在使北美的花粉季节恶化。

Anthropogenic climate change is worsening North American pollen seasons.

机构信息

School of Biological Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112;

Management of Complex Systems Department, University of California, Merced, CA 95343.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Feb 16;118(7). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2013284118.

Abstract

Airborne pollen has major respiratory health impacts and anthropogenic climate change may increase pollen concentrations and extend pollen seasons. While greenhouse and field studies indicate that pollen concentrations are correlated with temperature, a formal detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in continental pollen seasons is urgently needed. Here, we use long-term pollen data from 60 North American stations from 1990 to 2018, spanning 821 site-years of data, and Earth system model simulations to quantify the role of human-caused climate change in continental patterns in pollen concentrations. We find widespread advances and lengthening of pollen seasons (+20 d) and increases in pollen concentrations (+21%) across North America, which are strongly coupled to observed warming. Human forcing of the climate system contributed ∼50% (interquartile range: 19-84%) of the trend in pollen seasons and ∼8% (4-14%) of the trend in pollen concentrations. Our results reveal that anthropogenic climate change has already exacerbated pollen seasons in the past three decades with attendant deleterious effects on respiratory health.

摘要

空气中的花粉对呼吸健康有重大影响,人为气候变化可能会增加花粉浓度并延长花粉季节。虽然温室和田间研究表明花粉浓度与温度相关,但迫切需要正式检测和归因人为气候变化对大陆花粉季节的作用。在这里,我们使用了 1990 年至 2018 年来自 60 个北美的长期花粉数据,涵盖了 821 个站点年的数据,以及地球系统模型模拟,以量化人为引起的气候变化对花粉浓度的大陆模式的作用。我们发现,花粉季节的提前和延长(+20 天)以及花粉浓度的增加(+21%)在北美广泛存在,这与观测到的变暖密切相关。气候系统的人为强迫导致花粉季节的趋势增加了约 50%(四分位距:19-84%),花粉浓度的趋势增加了约 8%(4-14%)。我们的结果表明,人为气候变化在过去三十年中已经使花粉季节恶化,对呼吸健康产生了不良影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d99/7896283/9608ed64acaf/pnas.2013284118fig01.jpg

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