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分析影响配送电动自行车闯红灯行为的因素:相关混合二元对数模型方法。

Analysis of factors influencing delivery e-bikes' red-light running behavior: A correlated mixed binary logit approach.

机构信息

School of Transportation, Southeast University, Dongnandaxue Road 2, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

School of Transportation, Southeast University, Dongnandaxue Road 2, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Urban ITS, Jiangsu Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Modern Urban Traffic Technologies, School of Transportation, Southeast University, Dongnandaxue Road 2, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2021 Mar;152:105977. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2021.105977. Epub 2021 Feb 6.

Abstract

The red-light running (RLR) behavior of delivery e-bike (DEB) riders in cities has become the primary cause of traffic accidents associated with this group at signalized intersections. This study aimed to explore the influencing factors of red light running behavior and identify the differences between the DEB riders and the ordinary e-bike (OEB) riders to aid the development of countermeasures. In this study, the mixed (random parameter) binary logistic model was employed to capture the effects of unobserved heterogeneity. With this approach, factors including individual characteristics, behavioral variables, characteristics of signalized intersections, and the traffic environment were examined. Additionally, to account for the combined influence on the RLR occurrence, mixed logit framework was developed to reveal the correlations among the random parameters. The data of e-bike riders' crossing behaviors at four signalized intersections in Xi'an, China were collected, and 3335 samples were recorded. The results indicated showed that DEB riders are more likely to run red lights than OEB riders. Factors that affect RLR behaviors of the two groups are different. Factors associated with the unobserved heterogeneity include red-light stage, observation time, age and waiting position of the rider. The joint influence among random parameters further illustrates the complexity of the contributing factors of riders' crossing behavior. Results from the models provide insights into the development of intervention systems to improve the traffic safety of e-bike riders at intersections.

摘要

在有信号灯的十字路口,电动自行车(E-bike)送货员闯红灯(RLR)行为已成为与该群体相关交通事故的主要原因。本研究旨在探索电动自行车送货员闯红灯行为的影响因素,并识别与普通电动自行车(OEB)骑手之间的差异,以帮助制定相应对策。本研究采用混合(随机参数)二项逻辑模型来捕捉未观察到的异质性的影响。该方法检验了个体特征、行为变量、信号交叉口特征和交通环境等因素。此外,为了综合考虑对 RLR 发生的影响,建立了混合对数模型来揭示随机参数之间的相关性。本研究在中国西安的四个信号灯交叉口收集了电动自行车骑手穿越行为的数据,记录了 3335 个样本。结果表明,与 OEB 骑手相比,DEB 骑手更有可能闯红灯。两组骑手的 RLR 行为影响因素不同。与未观察到的异质性相关的因素包括红灯阶段、观察时间、年龄和骑手的等待位置。随机参数之间的联合影响进一步说明了影响骑手穿越行为的因素的复杂性。模型结果为改善交叉口电动自行车骑手的交通安全提供了干预系统的开发思路。

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