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基于 COVID-19 大流行期间日本全国范围内推特调查的全麻病例数估计:一项统计分析。

Estimation of the Number of General Anesthesia Cases Based on a Series of Nationwide Surveys on Twitter during COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: A Statistical Analysis.

机构信息

Department of Human Stress Response Science, Institute of Biomedical Science, Kansai Medical University, Hirakata, Osaka 573-1010, Japan.

Department of Anesthesia, Takarazuka Daiichi Hospital, Takakazuka, Hyogo 665-0832, Japan.

出版信息

Medicina (Kaunas). 2021 Feb 8;57(2):153. doi: 10.3390/medicina57020153.

DOI:10.3390/medicina57020153
PMID:33567770
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7915187/
Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has spread to more than 200 countries. In light of this situation, the Japanese Government declared a state of emergency in seven regions of Japan on 7 April 2020 under the provisions of the law. The medical care delivery system has been under pressure. Although various surgical societies have published guidelines on which to base their surgical decisions, it is not clear how general anesthesia has been performed and will be performed in Japan. One of the services provided by the social network service Twitter is a voting function-Twitter Polls-through which anonymous surveys were conducted. We analyzed the results of a series of surveys 17 times over 22 weeks on Twitter on the status of operating restrictions using quadratic programming to solve the mathematical optimizing problem, and public data provided by the Japanese Government were used to estimate the current changes in the number of general anesthesia performed in Japan. The minimum number of general anesthesia cases per week was estimated at 67.1% compared to 2015 on 27 April 2020. The timeseries trend was compatible with the results reported by the Japanese Society of Anesthesiologists (correlation coefficient = 0.69, 0.001. The number of general anesthesia was reduced up to two-thirds during the pandemic of COVID-19 in Japan and was successfully quantitatively estimated using a quick questionnaire on Twitter.

摘要

2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)是由严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)引起的,已传播到 200 多个国家。鉴于这种情况,日本政府于 2020 年 4 月 7 日根据法律规定,在日本的 7 个地区宣布进入紧急状态。医疗保健提供系统承受着压力。虽然各种外科协会已经发布了指导方针,以便在此基础上做出外科决策,但目前尚不清楚在日本一般麻醉是如何进行的,以及将来会如何进行。

社交网络服务 Twitter 的一项服务是投票功能-Twitter 民意调查-通过该功能可以进行匿名调查。我们使用二次规划解决数学优化问题,对 22 周内 Twitter 上关于手术限制状况的一系列调查的结果进行了分析,并使用日本政府提供的公开数据来估计日本目前进行全身麻醉的数量变化。

与 2015 年相比,2020 年 4 月 27 日,每周全身麻醉的最低病例数估计为 67.1%。时间序列趋势与日本麻醉师学会(麻醉师协会)报告的结果相吻合(相关系数=0.69,P<0.001)。在 COVID-19 大流行期间,日本的全身麻醉数量减少了三分之二以上,并且通过在 Twitter 上快速进行问卷调查成功地进行了定量估计。

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