Bhattacharya Joydeep, Chakraborty Shankha, Yu Xiumei
Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011-1054, USA.
Department of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1285, USA.
J Math Econ. 2021 Mar;93:102492. doi: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102492. Epub 2021 Feb 5.
This paper offers a parsimonious, rational-choice model to study the effect of pre-existing inequalities on the transmission of COVID-19. Agents decide whether to "go out" (or self-quarantine) and, if so, whether to wear protection such as masks. Three elements distinguish the model from existing work. First, non-symptomatic agents do not know if they are infected. Second, some of these agents unknowingly transmit infections. Third, we permit two-sided prevention via the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions: the probability of a person catching the virus from another depends on protection choices made by each. We find that a mean-preserving increase in pre-existing income inequality unambiguously increases the equilibrium proportion of unprotected, socializing agents and may increase or decrease the proportion who self-quarantine. Strikingly, while higher pre-COVID inequality may or may not raise the overall risk of infection, it increases the risk of disease in social interactions.
本文提供了一个简洁的理性选择模型，以研究既存不平等对新冠病毒传播的影响。个体决定是否“外出”（或自我隔离），如果外出，是否佩戴口罩等防护用品。该模型有三个要素区别于现有研究。第一，无症状个体不知道自己是否被感染。第二，其中一些个体在不知情的情况下传播感染。第三，我们允许通过使用非药物干预措施进行双向预防：一个人从另一个人那里感染病毒的概率取决于双方的防护选择。我们发现，既存收入不平等的均值保持不变的增加会明确提高未受保护且参与社交活动的个体的均衡比例，并且可能增加或减少自我隔离个体的比例。令人惊讶的是，虽然新冠疫情之前较高的不平等可能会增加或降低总体感染风险，但它会增加社交互动中的患病风险。
