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建模与管理脊灰病毒风险:我们处在这样的处境……

Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are….

机构信息

Kid Risk Inc., Orlando, FL, USA.

出版信息

Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):223-228. doi: 10.1111/risa.13668.

Abstract

This introduction for the third special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context for the current status of global polio eradication efforts and gives an overview of the individual papers included in the issue. Although risk analysis continues to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), efforts to finish the job remained off track at the beginning of 2020 and prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, as discussed in the special issue. The disruptions associated with COVID-19 occurring now will inevitably change the polio eradication trajectory, and future studies will need to characterize the impacts of these disruptions on the polio endgame.

摘要

这篇关于建模脊髓灰质炎病毒风险的第三期特刊导言,为全球消灭脊髓灰质炎工作的当前状况提供了背景,并概述了该期特刊中包含的各个论文。正如特刊中所讨论的,尽管风险分析继续支持全球消灭脊髓灰质炎倡议(GPEI),但在 2020 年初和 COVID-19 大流行之前,消灭脊髓灰质炎的工作仍偏离轨道。现在与 COVID-19 相关的干扰不可避免地会改变脊髓灰质炎根除轨迹,未来的研究将需要描述这些干扰对脊髓灰质炎终局的影响。

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本文引用的文献

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An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.
Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):393-406. doi: 10.1111/risa.13665.
2
Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019-2029.
Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):364-375. doi: 10.1111/risa.13664.
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Poliovirus vaccine options: another step forward.
Lancet. 2021 Jan 2;397(10268):2-3. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32629-5. Epub 2020 Dec 9.
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A Health Economic Analysis for Oral Poliovirus Vaccine to Prevent COVID-19 in the United States.
Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):376-386. doi: 10.1111/risa.13614. Epub 2020 Oct 20.
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Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication.
Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):273-288. doi: 10.1111/risa.13580. Epub 2020 Aug 21.
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Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.
Expert Rev Vaccines. 2020 Jul;19(7):661-686. doi: 10.1080/14760584.2020.1791093. Epub 2020 Aug 1.
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Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines.
Risk Anal. 2021 Feb;41(2):349-363. doi: 10.1111/risa.13557. Epub 2020 Jul 9.

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