Qiu Hongfang, Zhao Han, Xiang Haiyan, Ou Rong, Yi Jing, Hu Ling, Zhu Hua, Ye Mengliang
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, 400016, China.
Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing, 400042, China.
BMC Public Health. 2021 Feb 17;21(1):373. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-10383-x.
Mumps is classified as a class C infection disease in China, and the Chongqing area has one of the highest incidence rates in the country. We aimed to establish a prediction model for mumps in Chongqing and analyze its seasonality, which is important for risk analysis and allocation of resources in the health sector.
Data on incidence of mumps from January 2004 to December 2018 were obtained from Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention. The incidence of mumps from 2004 to 2017 was fitted using a seasonal autoregressive comprehensive moving average (SARIMA) model. The root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the goodness of fit of the models. The 2018 incidence data were used for validation.
From 2004 to 2018, a total of 159,181 cases (93,655 males and 65,526 females) of mumps were reported in Chongqing, with significantly more men than women. The age group of 0-19 years old accounted for 92.41% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (62.83%), followed by scattered children and children in kindergarten. The SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1) was the best fit model, RMSE and MAPE were 0.9950 and 39.8396%, respectively.
Based on the study findings, the incidence of mumps in Chongqing has an obvious seasonal trend, and SARIMA(2, 1, 1) × (0, 1, 1) model can also predict the incidence of mumps well. The SARIMA model of time series analysis is a feasible and simple method for predicting mumps in Chongqing.
在中国，腮腺炎被列为丙类传染病，重庆地区是全国发病率最高的地区之一。我们旨在建立重庆地区腮腺炎的预测模型并分析其季节性，这对于卫生部门的风险分析和资源分配具有重要意义。
收集重庆市疾病预防控制中心2004年1月至2018年12月的腮腺炎发病数据。使用季节性自回归综合移动平均（SARIMA）模型拟合2004年至2017年的腮腺炎发病率。采用均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）比较模型的拟合优度。用2018年的发病率数据进行验证。
2004年至2018年，重庆共报告腮腺炎病例159181例（男性93655例，女性65526例），男性明显多于女性。0至19岁年龄组占所有报告病例的92.41%，学生占比最大（62.83%），其次是散居儿童和幼儿园儿童。SARIMA(2, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)是拟合效果最好的模型，RMSE和MAPE分别为0.9950和39.8396%。
基于研究结果，重庆地区腮腺炎发病率呈现明显的季节性趋势，SARIMA(2, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)模型也能较好地预测腮腺炎发病率。时间序列分析的SARIMA模型是预测重庆地区腮腺炎发病率的一种可行且简便的方法。
