Xu Qinqin, Li Runzi, Liu Yafei, Luo Cheng, Xu Aiqiang, Xue Fuzhong, Xu Qing, Li Xiujun
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China.
Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Aug 17;14(8):925. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14080925.
This study aimed to predict the incidence of mumps using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, and provide theoretical evidence for early warning prevention and control in Zibo City, Shandong Province, China. Monthly mumps data from Zibo City gathered between 2005 and 2013 were used as a training set to construct a SARIMA model, and the monthly mumps in 2014 were defined as a test set for the model. From 2005 to 2014, a total of 8722 cases of mumps were reported in Zibo City; the male-to-female ratio of cases was 1.85:1, the age group of 1-20 years old accounted for 94.05% of all reported cases, and students made up the largest proportion (65.89%). The main serious endemic areas of mumps were located in Huantai County, Linzi District, and Boshan District of Zibo City. There were two epidemic peaks from April to July and from October to January in next year. The fitted model SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1) was established (AIC = 157.528), which has high validity and reasonability. The SARIMA model fitted dynamic changes of mumps in Zibo City well. It can be used for short-term forecasting and early warning of mumps.
本研究旨在利用季节性自回归积分滑动平均（SARIMA）模型预测腮腺炎发病率，为中国山东省淄博市的早期预警预防和控制提供理论依据。将2005年至2013年收集的淄博市腮腺炎月度数据作为训练集来构建SARIMA模型，并将2014年的腮腺炎月度数据定义为该模型的测试集。2005年至2014年，淄博市共报告8722例腮腺炎病例；病例的男女比例为1.85:1，1至20岁年龄组占所有报告病例的94.05%，学生占比最大（65.89%）。腮腺炎的主要严重流行地区位于淄博市的桓台县、临淄区和博山区。有两个流行高峰，分别在4月至7月以及次年10月至1月。建立了拟合模型SARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)（AIC = 157.528），该模型具有较高的有效性和合理性。SARIMA模型很好地拟合了淄博市腮腺炎的动态变化。它可用于腮腺炎的短期预测和早期预警。
