Bertassello L E, Bertuzzo E, Botter G, Jawitz J W, Aubeneau A F, Hoverman J T, Rinaldo A, Rao P S C
Lyles School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2051, USA.
Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Informatica e Statistica, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 30172 Venezia-Mestre, Italy.
R Soc Open Sci. 2021 Jan 13;8(1):201309. doi: 10.1098/rsos.201309. eCollection 2021 Jan.
Spatio-temporal dynamics in habitat suitability and connectivity among mosaics of heterogeneous wetlands are critical for biological diversity and species persistence in aquatic patchy landscapes. Despite the recognized importance of stochastic hydroclimatic forcing in driving wetlandscape hydrological dynamics, linking such effects to emergent dynamics of metapopulation poses significant challenges. To fill this gap, we propose here a dynamic stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM), which links parsimonious hydrological and ecological models to simulate spatio-temporal patterns in species occupancy in wetlandscapes. Our work aims to place ecological studies of patchy habitats into a proper hydrologic and climatic framework to improve the knowledge about metapopulation shifts in response to climate-driven changes in wetlandscapes. We applied the dynamic version of the SPOM (D-SPOM) framework in two wetlandscapes in the US with contrasting landscape and climate properties. Our results illustrate that explicit consideration of the temporal dimension proposed in the D-SPOM is important to interpret local- and landscape-scale patterns of habitat suitability and metapopulation occupancy. Our analyses show that spatio-temporal dynamics of patch suitability and accessibility, driven by the stochasticity in hydroclimatic forcing, influence metapopulation occupancy and the topological metrics of the emergent wetlandscape dispersal network. D-SPOM simulations also reveal that the extinction risk in dynamic wetlandscapes is exacerbated by extended dry periods when suitable habitat decreases, hence limiting successful patch colonization and exacerbating metapopulation extinction risks. The proposed framework is not restricted only to wetland studies but could also be applied to examine metapopulation dynamics in other types of patchy habitats subjected to stochastic external disturbances.
异质湿地镶嵌体中栖息地适宜性和连通性的时空动态对于水生斑块景观中的生物多样性和物种存续至关重要。尽管随机水文气候强迫在驱动湿地水文动态方面的重要性已得到认可，但将此类影响与集合种群的涌现动态联系起来面临重大挑战。为填补这一空白，我们在此提出一种动态随机斑块占用模型（SPOM），该模型将简约的水文和生态模型联系起来，以模拟湿地景观中物种占用的时空模式。我们的工作旨在将斑块栖息地的生态研究置于适当的水文和气候框架中，以增进对集合种群响应湿地景观气候变化而发生转移的认识。我们在美国具有不同景观和气候特征的两个湿地景观中应用了SPOM的动态版本（D-SPOM）框架。我们的结果表明，明确考虑D-SPOM中提出的时间维度对于解释栖息地适宜性和集合种群占用的局部和景观尺度模式很重要。我们的分析表明，由水文气候强迫的随机性驱动的斑块适宜性和可达性的时空动态会影响集合种群占用以及涌现的湿地景观扩散网络的拓扑指标。D-SPOM模拟还表明，当适宜栖息地减少时，延长的干旱期会加剧动态湿地景观中的灭绝风险，从而限制成功的斑块定殖并加剧集合种群的灭绝风险。所提出的框架不仅限于湿地研究，还可用于研究受随机外部干扰的其他类型斑块栖息地中的集合种群动态。
