Furati K M, Sarumi I O, Khaliq A Q M
Department of Mathematics & Statistics, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132-0001, USA.
Appl Math Model. 2021 Jul;95:89-105. doi: 10.1016/j.apm.2021.02.006. Epub 2021 Feb 17.
COVID-19 pandemic has impacted people all across the world. As a result, there has been a collective effort to monitor, predict, and control the spread of this disease. Among this effort is the development of mathematical models that could capture accurately the available data and simulate closely the futuristic scenarios. In this paper, a fractional-order memory-dependent model for simulating the spread of COVID-19 is proposed. In this model, the impact of governmental interventions and public perception are incorporated as part of the nonlinear time-varying transmission rate. In addition, an algorithm for approximating the optimal values of the fractional order and strength of governmental interventions is provided. This approach makes our model suitable for capturing the given data set and consequently reliable for future predictions. The model simulation is performed using the two-step generalized exponential time-differencing method and tested for data from Mainland China, Italy, Saudi Arabia and Brazil. The simulation results demonstrate that the fractional order model calibrates to the data better than its integer order counterpart. This observation is further endorsed by the calculated error metrics.
新冠疫情已经影响到了全世界的人们。因此,人们共同努力监测、预测和控制这种疾病的传播。在这项努力中,有数学模型的开发,这些模型能够准确地捕捉现有数据并紧密模拟未来的情况。本文提出了一种用于模拟新冠疫情传播的分数阶记忆依赖模型。在这个模型中,政府干预和公众认知的影响被纳入到非线性时变传播率中。此外,还提供了一种用于逼近分数阶最优值和政府干预强度的算法。这种方法使我们的模型适合捕捉给定的数据集,从而对未来预测具有可靠性。使用两步广义指数时间差分方法进行模型模拟,并对来自中国大陆、意大利、沙特阿拉伯和巴西的数据进行测试。模拟结果表明,分数阶模型比整数阶模型能更好地拟合数据。计算出的误差指标进一步证实了这一观察结果。