主要层面策略:在药物研发中的潜在作用。

Principal stratum strategy: Potential role in drug development.

机构信息

Clinical Development and Analytics, Novartis, Basel, Switzerland.

Methods, Collaboration, and Outreach Group (MCO), Department of Biostatistics, Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, Basel, Switzerland.

出版信息

Pharm Stat. 2021 Jul;20(4):737-751. doi: 10.1002/pst.2104. Epub 2021 Feb 23.

Abstract

A randomized trial allows estimation of the causal effect of an intervention compared to a control in the overall population and in subpopulations defined by baseline characteristics. Often, however, clinical questions also arise regarding the treatment effect in subpopulations of patients, which would experience clinical or disease related events post-randomization. Events that occur after treatment initiation and potentially affect the interpretation or the existence of the measurements are called intercurrent events in the ICH E9(R1) guideline. If the intercurrent event is a consequence of treatment, randomization alone is no longer sufficient to meaningfully estimate the treatment effect. Analyses comparing the subgroups of patients without the intercurrent events for intervention and control will not estimate a causal effect. This is well known, but post-hoc analyses of this kind are commonly performed in drug development. An alternative approach is the principal stratum strategy, which classifies subjects according to their potential occurrence of an intercurrent event on both study arms. We illustrate with examples that questions formulated through principal strata occur naturally in drug development and argue that approaching these questions with the ICH E9(R1) estimand framework has the potential to lead to more transparent assumptions as well as more adequate analyses and conclusions. In addition, we provide an overview of assumptions required for estimation of effects in principal strata. Most of these assumptions are unverifiable and should hence be based on solid scientific understanding. Sensitivity analyses are needed to assess robustness of conclusions.

摘要

一项随机试验可以估计干预措施与对照在总体人群和根据基线特征定义的亚人群中的因果效应。然而,临床问题经常也出现在亚人群中,这些患者在随机化后会经历临床或疾病相关事件。ICH E9(R1)指南中称治疗开始后发生并可能影响解释或测量存在的事件为并发事件。如果并发事件是治疗的结果,那么单独的随机化就不再足以有意义地估计治疗效果。比较干预和对照组中没有并发事件的亚组患者的分析将无法估计因果效应。这是众所周知的,但这种事后分析在药物开发中很常见。另一种方法是主要层策略,它根据研究臂上并发事件的潜在发生情况对受试者进行分类。我们通过示例说明,通过主要层提出的问题在药物开发中自然出现,并认为通过 ICH E9(R1)估计框架来解决这些问题有可能导致更透明的假设以及更适当的分析和结论。此外,我们还概述了在主要层中估计效果所需的假设。这些假设中的大多数都是无法验证的,因此应该基于坚实的科学理解。需要进行敏感性分析以评估结论的稳健性。

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索