Malvezzi M, Carioli G, Bertuccio P, Rosso T, Boffetta P, Levi F, La Vecchia C, Negri E
Department of Epidemiology, IRCCS-Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche 'Mario Negri', Milan Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Department of Clinical Sciences and Community Health, Universitá degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Ann Oncol. 2016 Apr;27(4):725-31. doi: 10.1093/annonc/mdw022. Epub 2016 Jan 26.
Current cancer mortality statistics are important for public health decision-making and resource allocation. Age-standardized rates and numbers of deaths are predicted for 2016 in the European Union (EU).
Population and death certification data for stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organization database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected numbers of deaths by age group were obtained for 2016 by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model.
Projected total cancer mortality trends for 2016 in the EU are favourable in both sexes with rates of 133.5/100 000 men and 85.2/100 000 women (8% and 3% falls since 2011) corresponding to 753 600 and 605 900 deaths in men and women for a total number of 1 359 500 projected cancer deaths (+3% compared with 2011, due to population ageing). In men, lung, colorectal and prostate cancer have fallen 11%, 5% and 8%, respectively, since 2011. Breast and colorectal cancer trends in women are favourable (8% and 7% falls, respectively), but lung and pancreatic cancer rates have risen 5% and 4% since 2011 reaching rates of 14.4 and 5.6/100 000 women. Leukaemias show favourable projected mortality for both sexes and all age groups, with stronger falls in the younger age groups. All ages rates are 4.0/100 000 men and 2.5/100 000 women, with falls of 14% and 12% respectively.
The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.
当前癌症死亡率统计数据对公共卫生决策和资源分配至关重要。预测了欧盟（EU）2016年的年龄标准化死亡率和死亡人数。
从世界卫生组织数据库和欧盟统计局获取了胃癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、肺癌、乳腺癌、子宫癌、前列腺癌、白血病及所有癌症的人口与死亡证明数据。得出了欧盟、法国、德国、意大利、波兰、西班牙和英国的数据。通过对连接点回归模型确定的最近时间段内估计死亡人数进行线性回归，得出了2016年各年龄组的预计死亡人数。
欧盟2016年预计的总体癌症死亡率趋势对男女均有利，男性死亡率为133.5/10万，女性为85.2/10万（自2011年以来分别下降8%和3%），男性死亡人数为753,600人，女性为605,900人，预计癌症死亡总数为1,359,500人（与2011年相比增加3%，原因是人口老龄化）。在男性中，自2011年以来，肺癌、结直肠癌和前列腺癌死亡率分别下降了11%、5%和8%。女性乳腺癌和结直肠癌趋势良好（分别下降8%和7%），但自2011年以来，肺癌和胰腺癌死亡率分别上升了5%和4%，达到每10万女性14.4例和5.6例。白血病在男女各年龄组的预计死亡率均呈下降趋势，且在较年轻年龄组下降更为明显。各年龄段的死亡率男性为4.0/10万，女性为2.5/10万，分别下降了14%和12%。
2016年欧盟癌症死亡率预测证实了死亡率的有利趋势，尤其是男性。肺癌可能成为女性癌症死亡率的首要部位。预计白血病死亡率将持续下降，儿童和年轻人下降幅度更大，这主要归功于管理和治疗方面的进展以及随后在欧洲各地的推广应用。
